MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/10/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Alec Bohm To Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 5.37 implied run total tonight and should be able to put some runs on the board.
Following a no-hitter last night by Michael Lorenzen, the Phillies' offense is in a spot to jump on a favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin.
This season, Corbin has allowed a .504 SLG, .354 wOBA, 4.55 xFIP, .324 BABIP, 1.84 HR/9, 15.3% strikeout rate, and 34.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Corbin isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher and pitches to contact, which often leads to hits with that .324 BABIP. He's simply not a threat on the mound.
We turn to Alec Bohm, who comes in with a solid 153 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .341 BABIP, .264 ISO, 16.1% strikeout rate, and 34.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Bohm doesn't waste chances at the play by striking out, and he is often putting the ball in play, which leads to good results.
Given this high implied team total, the Phillies are expected to plate some runners, and we want to capture that via a total base prop.
Mookie Betts To Record 2+ Hits (+190)
Mookie Betts is elite, and there's not much more that needs to be said.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have their usual 5.47 implied run total, and we can always look to them for some player props. Betts To Record 2+ Hits (+190) is very interesting tonight considering his odds for 2+ Total Bases (-120) is far lower. The differential between the two props is what I love to target, and the value with +190 is too good to pass up tonight.
Yes, there are circumstances where Betts has a double as his only hit of the night and would cash the 2+ total base prop but not the multiple-hits prop. However, we want to shoot for a bit of plus money (+190) where the outcome is very similar to the total base prop.
Betts will be up against Ty Blach, who has a very small sample size this season, but if we look at his career since 2016, he's allowed a .352 wOBA, .474 SLG, 4.84 xFIP, .325 BABIP, 1.05 HR/9, and 36.2% hard-contact rate. None of that is good, and it's no wonder the Dodgers have a 5.47 implied run total.
Betts is rocking a 183 wRC+, .441 wOBA, .406 ISO, 14.8% strikeout rate, 58.0% fly-ball rate, and 47.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's elite across the board, and Betts can reach this prop in a hurry.
