Fantasy Baseball: 10 Starting Pitchers Expected to See an Increase in Production
Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
2016 nF Score: -2.34
2017 Projected nF Score: 0.43
Projected Boost: 2.77
| Year | IP | W | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 123.1 | 5 | 100 | 24 | 4.96 | 1.28 |
| 2017 (Projected) | 180 | 10 | 140 | 37 | 4.02 | 1.21 |
Wei-Yin Chen spent four seasons with the Baltimore Orioles and posted an impressive 3.72 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP in just over 700 innings of work. Even if he performed closer to his 4.14 FIP during that time, it's still impressive considering he accomplished it in the American League -- more specifically, the AL East.
So, when he signed with the Miami Marlins last winter, it seemed like a no-brainer that he'd at least continue his solid production. He was not only moving to the National League, but also to Marlins Park, which is very pitcher-friendly.
None of that happened.
After four years of producing a pop-up rate north of 10% (including 14% in 2015), it dropped to just 6.8% last season. His fastball velocity also dropped slightly, while his other three pitches actually slightly increased in velocity. He used to be a sneaky play, but he'll need to prove that again in 2017.
Current Fantasy Draft Information:
This drop in production is showing in his ADP, which is just barely inside the top 350 as the 96th pitcher to get drafted. Even if he's able reach our projections, he's not worth anything more than a late-round flier, with the ideal situation being to monitor him on the waiver wire.
