Fantasy Baseball: 10 Surprises So Far in 2017
Mark Reynolds, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Preseason ADP: 504.97
The Start
Mark Reynolds didn't even get a big-league deal from the Colorado Rockies this past winter, but made the team because they needed someone to man first base while Ian Desmond's broken hand healed. He's made the most of it.
After seven consecutive seasons of 20-plus homers from 2008 to 14 (including three different 30-plus campaigns), he combined for just 27 between 2015 and 2016 despite playing one of those years in Colorado.
But through his first 153 plate appearances this year, Reynolds has already slugged 12 homers to go with 26 runs scored, 33 RBI, a hefty .304 ISO and .433 wOBA. That all equals a 150 wRC+, which would easily be the best of his career.
How Sustainable Is it?
Reynolds has the pedigree of being a power bat, but his production in that department began dipping the last couple years for a reason -- he wasn't putting the ball in the air very often.
Here's a look at his fly-ball rate (FB%) compared to his homer-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB%) and hard-hit rate since the 2014 season.
| Year | FB% | HR/FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 48.1% | 17.6% | 32.2% |
| 2015 | 39.5% | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| 2016 | 32.5% | 15.2% | 29.0% |
| 2017 | 30.1% | 38.7% | 36.9% |
Coors Field is a hitter's paradise, but it's awfully hard to hit homers while hitting ground balls 47.1% of the time.
That home run to fly ball rate already looks unsustainable, but a quick glance at his home/road splits in that area makes it even clearer -- 25.0% of his fly balls have gone over the wall on the road, while 47.4% of them have reached the seats at home.
