Fantasy Baseball: 10 Surprises So Far in 2017
Mike Leake, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Preseason ADP: 361.88
The Start
For the most part, St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Mike Leake is producing mostly how we'd expect him to. He has a fastball that barely cracks 90 miles per hour, depends heavily on his cutter, doesn't walk a whole lot of hitters (1.94 walks per nine innings '17) and is also not striking out a ton (6.22 strikeouts per nine innings).
The difference? Well, he's the proud owner of a shiny 1.94 ERA and a 4-2 record through his first 46.1 innings of work. And after such a horrific start, it sure helps that the Cardinals themselves have gotten incredibly hot, going from last place to first place in the National League central in the matter of a couple weeks.
Leake's SIERA checks in at 3.88, which is pretty much in line with his production during the course of his big league career (3.92 ERA).
How Sustainable Is it?
For a hurler like Leake -- one who doesn't get hitters to swing and miss often -- to experience success, they need to find success on balls in play. Outside of allowing a 25.4% hard-hit rate (which would be his lowest since 2011), there isn't a whole lot different in his batted-ball profile...except for three statistics in particular: his BABIP allowed, his homers allowed per nine innings (HR/9), and his strand rate (LOB%).
For comparison's sake, here's a look at what he did in these areas last year with St. Louis, compared to this year and his career overall.
| Year | BABIP | HR/9 | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | .318 | 1.02 | 65.6% |
| 2017 | .237 | 0.58 | 86.1% |
| Career | .291 | 1.08 | 73.6% |
A couple of these stats -- mostly BABIP and LOB% -- can be dictated by the defense behind a pitcher. The Cardinals were horrendous in the field last year, and haven't looked all that great so far this year when looking at the advanced metrics.
So, it seems like Leake will come back down to reality at some point in the near future.
