Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest MLB Hitters in July?
Hitters With an Inflated BABIP
Over the past month, a league-average MLB hitter produced a .303 BABIP to go along with 20.7% line-drive rate, 44.0% ground-ball rate, 35.4% fly-ball rate, and a 31.8% hard-hit rate. Some of the below players can point to their speed as a reason why they popped up here, but that doesn't mean what they're doing isn't hard to sustain.
It's also worth noting that there are some guys on this list who normally wouldn't be here, but there were a ton of super-inflated BABIPs this month accompanied with a batted-ball profile that made them look somewhat legit.
| Rank | Player | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | .431 | 11.1% | 55.6% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| 2 | Gorkys Hernandez | .393 | 29.3% | 48.3% | 22.4% | 26.2% |
| 3 | Eddie Rosario | .388 | 27.9% | 36.8% | 35.3% | 29.4% |
| 4 | Cory Spangenberg | .375 | 23.7% | 54.2% | 22.0% | 25.0% |
| 5 | Dee Gordon | .368 | 23.9% | 58.7% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| 6 | Dustin Pedroia | .367 | 26.5% | 50.6% | 22.9% | 20.5% |
| 7 | Jean Segura | .364 | 21.3% | 57.3% | 21.3% | 23.6% |
| 8 | Max Kepler | .353 | 14.7% | 45.6% | 39.7% | 29.0% |
| 9 | Ben Gamel | .329 | 16.7% | 57.7% | 25.6% | 20.5% |
| 10 | Jose Iglesias | .320 | 17.3% | 56.0% | 26.7% | 24.7% |
Should He Really Be Here?
Paul Goldschmidt is the perfect example of a hitter who normally wouldn't pop up on this list. Despite an above-average hard-hit rate, though, the rest of his batted-ball profile falls short of league averages.
For someone who posted a .360 BABIP through June 30th off the strength of an 18.9% line-drive rate, 42.8% ground-ball rate, and 38.3% fly-ball rate, the results he experienced in July probably were a little surprising -- especially since his hard-hit rate dropped over 13 percentage points between these two periods of time. The overall production was still there (he posted a 146 wRC+ for the month), but the power wasn't really.
Goldy collected just nine extra-base hits in July (five doubles, one triple, three home runs), and his Isolated Power (ISO) of .200 during those 104 plate appearances was his lowest of any month this season. While his 26.9% strikeout rate was rather high compared to what he's done this year, he paired it with an equally high 21.2% walk rate.
Guess Who's Back
Seattle Mariners outfielder Ben Gamel led the way in this department last month, and although his BABIP did come crashing down to more normal levels in July, it was still above average. This past month was the roughest one for Gamel from an overall production standpoint (81 wRC+ in July was his lowest of any month this year), and he's been on a downward trend with regard to his batted-ball profile for about three months now.
Since May, Gamel's line-drive rate, ground-ball rate, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate have all been going in the wrong direction, with July being his worst mark in each of these statistics. He's not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was earlier this year, but it also doesn't help to combine the above stats with a 26.9% soft-hit rate, which is exactly what he did.
The One Tiger Who Doesn't Hit the Ball Hard
We've already talked about how the Detroit Tigers enjoy hitting the ball hard. That's still true, but shortstop Jose Iglesias sticks out like a sore thumb since he's one of just two hitters on Detroit's active roster with a hard-hit rate below 30.0% (it's 28.4%, which is the worst on the team).
Iglesias isn't exactly around for his offense -- he's posted a 73 wRC+ through 335 plate appearances this season -- but he actually had his best month of the year in July despite the process he took to get there. After not posting a monthly wRC+ higher than 74 through June, he finished this past month with a mark of 101.
He can certainly thank his BABIP for some help, but he shouldn't give any dap to his hard-hit rate (24.7%) or soft-hit rate (26.0%), which were both his worst of any month in 2017.
