MLB

Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award

John Stolnis  —  @johnstolnis Jun 7th, 2018
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Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

Odds: 33/1

Outside of Jake Arrieta, Miles Mikolas has been the best free agent starter signed by any team this off-season. The St. Louis Cardinals showed great wisdom in signing Mikolas out of Japan to a two-year deal this winter, with the young right-hander putting up an fWAR of 1.5 that is tied for 10th in the NL, and ERA of 2.49 that is 8th-lowest and a FIP of 3.18 that is 11th-best.

Mikolas is not a strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 18.5% that is 38th out of 45 qualified NL starters. Mikolas' secret is his impeccable control and command, with a 2.8% walk rate that is the lowest in the league, resulting in an opponents' average against of .232 and a WHIP of 1.00. He's also a high ground-ball guy, with a grounder rate of 50.5% that is 12th-highest in the NL.

Mikolas probably isn't winning the Cy Young, but his inclusion is at least a recognition of the outstanding season he's having -- proof pitchers don't need to strike out everybody if they have superb control.

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