Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 National League Cy Young Award
Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds: 33/1
Patrick Corbin got off to a blazingly-hot start this year, and with an fWAR of 1.9 that is fourth-best in the National League, he is deserving of being in Cy Young contention. In 13 starts, his ERA of 2.87 is 11th-best in the NL, with a 3.05 FIP that ranks 7th.
However, as I noted in my fantasy buy/sell piece for this week, Corbin has slipped a little since his red-hot April. He put up a 2.25 ERA in 40 innings pitched in the season's first month, striking out 36.7% of batters while walking just 4.7%. In May, those numbers got worse, with an ERA of 3.82, a strikeout rate of 29.5% and a walk rate of 8.9% -- although all of those numbers are still very good. But in April, his fastball averaged between 91.7 and 92.6 miles per hour, whereas in May, it ranged from 88.9 to 90.2 miles per hour.
However, Corbin's start Tuesday night against the San Francisco Giants, in a big NL West showdown, was outstanding as he went 6.1 innings and gave up just one run on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts. The fastball also looked better last night, too.
Remember when we were all concerned about Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity? It has come off of its season low and at 91 MPH so far tonight, that average would be his highest since Apr. 28.
— Devan Fink (@DevanFink) June 6, 2018
If Corbin gets that pitch back, he could race up the Vegas boards and may be the best bet of all the players with longshot odds.
