MLB Postseason Betting Preview: League Division Series

Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros

Cleveland Indians American League Pennant Odds: +500

Houston Astros American League Pennant Odds: +175

The past two American League pennant winners meet in this one as the Cleveland Indians take on the defending world champion Houston Astros.

This season, Cleveland ranks seventh with a 1.10 nERD and seventh in BaseRuns at 125. Meanwhile, Houston leads baseball with a 1.80 nERD and 197 BaseRuns. They are the the clear favorites here and have the second-best betting odds (+360) of winning the World Series.

The Indians had the best pitching staff in baseball last year, and they were excellent again this year, finishing fourth with a 3.55 SIERA. However, their ALDS opponent Houston Astros took the honor of the best pitching staff in the game, as they finished first with a 3.27 SIERA.

On the side of the offense, thanks to the lowest strikeout rate in the game, Cleveland finished the year seventh with a 105 wRC+. Meanwhile, backed by the best walk-to-strikeout ratio in the American League, Houston finished the season fifth with a 110 wRC+.

While Cleveland is a great team, they benefited from playing in the softest division in the league (only the AL Central featured just one team in the division to finish with a positive run differential). Houston, on the other hand, didn't rest on their laurels and took the league by storm with their pitching rotation. It would be smart to stick with the defending champs, who our models give the best chances of winning it all.

Recommended Bet: Houston +175