Fantasy Baseball: 10 Hitters Who Could Bounce Back in 2019

Billy Hamilton, OF, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 167
Depth Charts: 595 PA, 64 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 40 SB, .241 AVG
THE BAT: 577 PA, 68 R, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 44 SB, .239 AVG

Stealing at least 50 bases in four straight years coming into 2018, Billy Hamilton has been more or less a one-trick pony throughout his career. But the ever-polarizing Hamilton finally failed to reach that threshold in 2018, plummeting his fantasy value. Under normal circumstances, 34 stolen bases would be nothing to scoff at, but when you come up short in literally the only category you're drafted for, that's going to be a problem.

So, what went wrong?

For starters, Hamilton once again remained a liability at the plate. While he managed to prop up his walk rate (8.3%), it came with a career-worst strikeout rate (23.7%), perhaps because he curiously raised his launch angle, leading to more fly balls and lowering his ground-ball rate to a career low (37.9%). For most hitters, fewer ground balls wouldn't be a bad thing, but given Hamilton's speed and career .088 ISO, let's just say the "fly-ball revolution" isn't for him.

Ultimately, though, all those changes resulted in the same poor .299 OBP for the second straight season, and while Hamilton actually stayed healthy and played the most games in his career (153), he hit ninth for much of 2018, leaving him with fewer plate appearances than the year before, dropping from 633 to 556.

But perhaps the most worrisome trend is his peculiar decline as a base stealer -- you know, the one thing he's supposed to be good at.

A 75% stolen base success rate is often considered the minimum threshold to provide a team value, and Hamilton fell into that range last season, converting 77% of his stolen base attempts (34-of-44). That's a respectable mark then, but down from 82% in 2017 and 88% each of the two years before that. On top of that, his stolen base opportunity rate (SBO%) -- which measures how often a player runs once on base -- has also steadily declined over the past four seasons: 61%, 56%, 46%, and 32%.

Okay, now that I've promptly scared you off, why should we still have any interest in Hamilton?

Well, while his efficiency as a base stealer has gone in the wrong direction, his elite sprint speed has remained steady (99th percentile), so in theory, he should be fully capable of turning things around as long as he has the green light.

And the green light is exactly what he should have on the Kansas City Royals, a team that stole the sixth-most bases in 2018 and looks built on speed with guys like Hamilton, Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Chris Owings and Terrance Gore.

The presence of Merrifield and Mondesi could perhaps relegate Hamilton to the bottom of the order again, but his defense should keep him in the lineup every day, and we've seen him exceed 50 stolen bases in fewer than 500 plate appearances twice already as is.

At 28 years old, it's hard to envision Hamilton improving much as a hitter at this point. But as long as the blazing speed is still there, what we witnessed last year looks like his floor, which is still more than 30 swiped bags. And now you're not risking nearly as much draft capital as the last couple seasons.

Of course, he'll almost certainly remain a liability in home runs, RBI, and batting average, so take the good with the bad and keep him in mind on a case-by-case basis, depending on your team needs. But the potential is still there to lead the league in stolen bases -- right when some may have soured on him.