Fantasy Baseball: 10 Hitters Who Could Bounce Back in 2019
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 182
Depth Charts: 525 PA, 63 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 19 SB, .244 AVG
THE BAT: 517 PA, 66 R, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 18 SB, .237 AVG
One of the trendiest breakout candidates entering 2018, Byron Buxton was without a doubt one of the season's biggest busts.
In 2017, he posted a .253/.314/.413 line with 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases over 511 plate appearances. Although that was intriguing enough, what really turned heads was his second half, where he hit .300/.347/.546 with 11 of those round-trippers and 13 swiped bags. That led many to salivate over the possibilities across a full season, and Buxton often went off the board inside the top 50 of 2018 drafts.
Welp, chances are you know how that went.
Last year was a complete and utter disaster for Buxton, with multiple injuries (migraines, toe, wrist) and poor performance leaving him with just a .156/.183/.200 line over 94 MLB plate appearances, and he ultimately ended the year in Triple-A.
Now, we're kind of back where we started with Buxton -- a tantalizing power/speed talent who can't quite make the final leap.
Supposing we mostly give Buxton a pass for last season because of his poor luck with injuries, poor plate discipline has always been an issue, with a 31.7% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate over 1,074 career plate appearances. Even during that magical second half run in 2017, he posted a 27.6% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate, and much of his success appeared fueled by an elevated .378 BABIP and 20.0% HR/FB rate, both well above his career marks.
And yet, for all his flaws, we're still talking about a 25-year-old who was a former elite prospect who has recorded the fastest sprint speed in three of the last four seasons, including 2018. Buxton is typically being drafted after Billy Hamilton but is technically faster without being a total liability in home runs. Although Buxton has never come close to 50 stolen bases, it's worth noting he's been caught stealing only 5 times in 51 career attempts -- good for a 90% success rate.
Like Hamilton, Buxton's defense could also help him stay in the lineup even if he struggles at the plate. And while it's hard to say if the 21 pounds he's added this offseason will necessarily help, it's positive that he appears motivated to make changes and put last season behind him.
Of course, the truth is it's impossible to say what we'll get from Buxton in 2019 -- the quintessential boom-or-bust candidate -- but the projections give a glimpse of that power/speed potential, with room for more if he can get additional plate appearances. With even a slight improvement at the plate, the former top prospect still has immense fantasy upside and can be had well outside the top-200 picks in some drafts. Many reached for Buxton last year and got crushed, but if he flops again in 2019, the punishment for another disappointing season won't be nearly as severe.
And if nothing else, let Buxton be a cautionary tale for those enamored by Adalberto Mondesi, one of this year's most divisive players.
After putting up 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases over just 75 games in 2018, Mondesi has the potential to be a game-changing asset in fantasy. But not unlike the 2017 Buxton, we're essentially talking about a half-season of elite fantasy production -- a very small sample size to extrapolate from -- and Mondesi showed similar flaws at the plate, posting just a 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate.
Mondesi is typically going inside the top 50. Maybe it works out this time, and the projections are typically pretty favorable for him Mondesi. But there's a lot of risk at his rising draft price, and you could argue a similar player in Buxton is going nearly 150 picks later.
