Fantasy Baseball: 10 Hitters Who Could Bounce Back in 2019
Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 276
Depth Charts: 595 PA, 69 R, 21 HR, 73 RBI, 6 SB, .240 AVG
THE BAT: 591 PA, 74 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 6 SB, .244 AVG
Jake Lamb's power upside may not match up with the likes of Miguel Sano's, but despite having the much lower ADP, Lamb's 2016 and 2017 seasons are better than anything Sano has ever done simply because he stayed on the field more. Lamb's career-high marks from 2017 in plate appearances (635), runs (89), home runs (30), and RBI (105) are all higher than Sano's career-best clips.
But health wasn't on Lamb's side in 2018, as a shoulder injury limited him to just 238 plate appearances and ultimately led to season-ending surgery. The injury was likely to blame for a drop in numbers in just about every category, as he submitted just a .222/.307/.348 line with a 78 wRC+.
Lamb should be ready to go for the start of the season, so with a clean bill of health, we should be optimistic that he can perform closer to his 2016-17 form, when he put up a 112 wRC+. A career 25.4% strikeout rate suggests he'll remain modest in batting average (.247 career hitter), although at least he balances it out with an 11.0% career walk rate.
But the real issue will be if Lamb falls into a platoon situation. Although Lamb's 412 career plate appearances against lefties isn't a huge sample size in the grand scheme of things, he's performed notably worse in lefty-lefty matchups, batting a dreadful .160/.265/.292 with a 32.3% strikeout rate and 28.6% hard-hit rate.
While it's possible there's some noise in those numbers, that will hardly matter if he doesn't improve and the Diamondbacks decide to sit him against left-handers. Paul Goldschmidt is no longer with the team, so Lamb is expected to take over at first base with Christian Walker as a possible platoon partner (on the bright side, the move to first will give Lamb added position flexibility during the season).
The dreaded Chase Field humidor also can't be overlooked, as it appears to have turned what was once a hitter's paradise into more or less a neutral park. Assuming that's the case, Lamb's power could take a hit, too, as his career ISO prior to 2018 was significantly higher at home than on the road (.231 to .194),
Between a potential platoon situation and the humidor, it may be tough for Lamb to fully return to his prior numbers, but that appears to be already built into both his projections and draft price. Under the circumstances, his upside may not be as high as others on this list, but he's going outside the top-300 picks in some cases, which looks like a nice discount for someone who hit 30 dingers just a couple years ago.
