Fantasy Baseball: 7 Starting Pitchers Who Could Bounce Back in 2019
Chris Archer, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 132
Steamer: 191 IP, 204 K, 12 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
THE BAT: 194 IP, 214 K, 11 W, 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
It feels like we've been waiting for Chris Archer to "bounce back" for years now, tempted by the allure of his brilliant 2015 campaign. His 2016 and 2017 efforts couldn't quite measure up but still provided worthwhile imitations, giving him three straight seasons of 200-plus innings and 230-plus strikeouts -- something we'll happily take nowadays.
But Archer finally pulled the rug out from under us last year, posting just a 4.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP -- his worst marks across the past six seasons -- and injuries held him to only 148 1/3 innings, leaving him with just 162 punchouts and 6 wins. As a top-50 pick or so in 2018, let's just say that classifies as a "bust."
After failing expectations three years in a row, the bar is much lower now as that 2015 season fades from our memory, but it's for that very reason we shouldn't give up on Archer just yet.
For starters, he posted a 3.73 SIERA and .338 BABIP, signs that his steep decline in ERA wasn't fully warranted. Recent issues with the long ball (at least a 14% HR/FB rate three straight years) and hard contact (39.4% hard-hit rate allowed from 2017-18) remain problematic, but he's maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, so last year's SIERA still looks like a good ERA barometer moving forward.
And speaking of punchouts, although Archer's strikeout rate dipped from 29.2% to 25.4%, his swinging-strike rate (13.1%), velocity (95-plus MPH), and walk rate (7.7%) all barely budged, suggesting this is still more or less the same Archer. It's entirely possible he returns to that elite strikeout range -- he ranked fourth in strikeouts just a couple years ago (249).
It's also worth noting Archer reincorporated his sinker upon joining the Pittsburgh Pirates, which FanGraph's Alex Chamberlain points out could be a positive development. Archer ditched his sinker following the 2014 season, and while the offering itself wouldn't be a game-changer, it could potentially be addition by subtraction if it means fewer fastballs -- a pitch that's been routinely torched. Perhaps it's an experiment that's eventually scrapped, but at least it's another avenue toward better results.
Clearly, the masses have grown tired of Archer, with his ADP dropping outside the top 125, but this looks very much like a buying opportunity. Even if you no longer think he'll ever return to ace status, he doesn't need to at this price point. With health, we could see a sub-4.00 ERA with around 200 innings and 200 strikeouts -- and who knows, maybe that extra gear is still in there somewhere.
