Fantasy Baseball: 7 Starting Pitchers Who Could Bounce Back in 2019
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 36
Steamer: 185 IP, 180 K, 13 W, 3.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
THE BAT: 185 IP, 177 K, 14 W, 3.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
You typically don't think of a bounce-back candidate going within the top 40 picks, but that shows how high a standard we've held Clayton Kershaw to over the years. Case and point, he posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a 23.9% strikeout rate last season in a so-called "down" year.
And yet, that was his worst ERA and WHIP since 2010 and his worst strikeout rate since his rookie year in 2008. It was also the first time in the last five seasons that Kershaw failed to put up a strikeout rate above 29%. A 3.45 SIERA suggested the rise in ERA was deserved, and the sizable drop in swinging-strike rate (14.1% to 11.0%) and fastball velocity (93 to 91 MPH) supported the worrisome decline in punchouts.
To top it all off, arguably the biggest concern with Kershaw the past few years has been health -- specifically his recurring back issues -- and, sure enough, he failed to reach 180 innings for the third year in a row (161 1/3) and hasn't made more than 27 starts in four of the last five seasons.
The 200-inning pitcher is a dying breed these days -- only 13 hurlers logged 200 innings in 2018 -- but when you're the consensus first pitcher off the board as Kershaw was last year (top-six ADP in 2018 NFBC drafts), coming well short of that becomes a much bigger deal. Between the lack of innings and drop-off in strikeout rate, Kershaw's 155 strikeouts ranked just 51st among pitchers last year and were a far cry from his 2017 mark (202).
Needless to say, these are troubling trends, but we're also talking about one of the best pitchers of this era who turns just 31 in March. If anyone can figure it out, shouldn't it be this guy? It wasn't too long ago that Justin Verlander was considered an iffy commodity coming off back-to-back down years with reduced velocity entering the 2016 season -- well, he's the fourth hurler off the board in 2019.
Kershaw's balky back is a real concern, but let's remember that we're no longer risking a first-round pick on him, and given the dearth of 200-inning starters, we don't necessarily need him to hit that barrier to be valuable. Since the back issues started creeping up in 2014, Kershaw has averaged right around 183 innings over the last five campaigns, which would put him at his projections.
And how certain are we that the other early-round picks will hit that 200-inning threshold? Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer, and Luis Severino have never thrown 200 innings. Carlos Carrasco has done it only once. Heck, Kershaw's much-heralded teammate, Walker Buehler, threw only 153 1/3 innings between the majors and minors last year. Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton, and Stephen Strasburg haven't exactly been beacons of health and are going just a couple rounds later.
The point is, even without a complete return to form, Kershaw could very well turn into a draft day bargain. He's going outside the top-10 hurlers and even has a max pick of 61st overall in at least one NFBC draft. It's understandable if you're skeptical (keep an eye on his spring training velocity), but considering how down people are on him, don't be surprised if he drops past his ADP in your draft. If that's the case, why not bet on the former unanimous best pitcher in the game?
