Fantasy Baseball: 7 Starting Pitchers Who Could Bounce Back in 2019
Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 279
Steamer: 154 IP, 149 K, 10 W, 3.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
THE BAT: 154 IP, 147 K, 9 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
From one Gray to another, Sonny Gray also submitted a forgettable 2018 performance in the form of a 4.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. However, most of the damage came at home in Yankee Stadium (6.98 ERA, 5.10 xFIP) where Gray allowed 11 of his 14 home runs, while he remained effective on the road (3.17, 3.27). Even his home/road splits in strikeout rate (15.7% and 26.4%) and walk rate (12.2% and 7.4%) were dramatically different.
To no one's surprise, the Yankees decided to move on this offseason, and a fresh start should do Gray some good -- except he ended up with the Reds in yet another hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Still, Gray's draft stock has plummeted far enough that there's little risk in taking a chance on those road numbers (and a move to the National League) translating into something fantasy worthy again. A return to something closer to his career 3.66 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, or at the very least his 4.08 SIERA in 2017, gives us a reasonable baseline expectation. He's yet to have a season with a ground-ball rate below 50%, which should also help bring that ERA back down.
But perhaps most encouraging from his 2017 campaign was his improved strikeout rate. Although he owns a 20.9% career strikeout rate -- right around league average -- he produced a career-best 22.6% strikeout rate and 11.9% swinging-strike rate that season, potentially hinting at more punchout upside than you might expect.
Normally, one might chalk that up as an outlier season, but that rise coincided with an increase in slider usage to 15%, a pitch that generated a 50.7% strikeout rate and 22.1% swinging-strike rate. He maintained a similar usage in 2018, and while it wasn't quite as dominant, it still churned out robust marks of 41.2% and 18.2%, respectively.
Not surprisingly, Gray's other offerings were far less effective last year, but his curveball was another bright spot, throwing it around 23% of time for a 35.3% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging-strike rate. Between those breaking balls, the tools are there to get back to that 2017 strikeout rate and perhaps a bit higher if he can work them in more.
Gray has now put up stinkers in two of the last three seasons, but there are some encouraging signs, and we shouldn't totally forget the early success he enjoyed as a member of the Oakland Athletics. Although Cincinnati may not be the ideal landing spot, it's helped keep his ADP low, so you're not making a grand investment if it all goes south again.
