9 Bold Fantasy Baseball Predictions for 2019
Adalberto Mondesi Won't Be a Top-15 Shortstop
NFBC ADP: 45.58
Position Rank: 8
| Projections | PA | Runs | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Season | 291 | 47 | 14 | 37 | 32 | .276 | .341 |
| THE BAT | 631 | 81 | 21 | 63 | 35 | .241 | .302 |
| Steamer | 599 | 74 | 21 | 71 | 41 | .253 | .311 |
| numberFire | 551 | 69 | 18 | 63 | 39 | .248 | -- |
With the downturn in steals in recent seasons, speed threats continue to go high in NFBC drafts. That includes Adalberto Mondesi, the current 45th overall pick and 8th shortstop off the board.
There are reasons to be bullish on Mondesi, at least at first glance. In a cup of coffee last season, which amounted to a little bit less than half a season, Mondesi ripped off an impressive 14-homer, 32-steal campaign. That was part of a Kansas City Royals season based around thievery as they were one of six squads to break the 100-steal mark (117).
Obviously, putting up that kind of half season is going to get folks excited.
While Mondesi's numbers last year were juicy, they were also clear outliers. Prior to 2017, he didn't put up double-digit homers in any one year (career high was 8 in 2014 and 2016), so the power may not stick.
There's a major plate discipline issue here, too. In 149 MLB plate appearances in 2016, Mondesi struck out 32.2% of the time. In 2017, he fanned 36.7% of the time in 60 MLB plate appearances, and last season, his MLB strikeout rate was 26.5%. That hefty strikeout rate was driven by a poor contact rate -- among the 313 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, Mondesi checked in 303rd in contact rate (67.0%).
In addition to that, his walk rate was just 3.8% last year. He walked only 11 times in 291 plate appearances.
All in all, there is a lot of risk in Mondesi's profile. Unless the power is legit and/or his on-base skills improve, he's going to have a tough time living up to his lofty draft cost.
