Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Positive Home Run Regression in 2019
Spring training games are here, and that means real baseball.
Last week we highlighted the importance of the home run category. Whether you're playing in a standard 5x5 league or using one of the scoring variation that factors in slugging percentage or OPS, power matters.
Homers have been rising in recent seasons, from 4,909 taters in 2015 up to 5,585 a season ago. As that commodity rises, you need plenty of guys that can bring the heat with the long ball. To hit homers, hitters need to get the ball in the air. And thanks to all the data at our disposal these days, we can use past years' fly-ball rates (FB) and home run-to-fly-ball rates (HR/FB) to provide some context.
Below are the league-average rates from the last four seasons:
| Season | FB | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 33.8% | 11.4% |
| 2016 | 34.6% | 12.8% |
| 2017 | 35.5% | 13.7% |
| 2018 | 35.4% | 12.7% |
This represents part two in examining some outliers in home runs from a year ago -- an attempt to look at what hitters did last year and predict whether that output sustainable, bound to improve, or on the decline.
Below are five bats that could take their power pop to another level in 2019.
