MLB Power Rankings Update: Too Early Wildcard Picture
Here at numberFire, we like math. We're not about subjectivity. So when we calculate our power rankings, it's not based on what our eyes are telling us or what our feelings say. It's based on straight up math.
For baseball, we use our nERD metric to show how good a team actually is performing. nERD, for those of you who are unaware, tells us how many runs a team should win by against a league-average opponent on a neutral field. A nERD of 1.00, for instance, means that team would be an ordinary one by a run. If that team was facing a squad with a nERD of -0.5, we'd expect them to win by 1.5 runs.
Now that we have an explanation of how our math works, take a look at how things are shaping up around Major League Baseball, sorted by nERD.
You can view the comprehensive standings below. Some quick observations and the wildcard races are broken down in the next slides.
| Rank | Team | Playoffs | Champs | Division | nERD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 90.20% | 20.70% | 76.70% | 1.17 |
| #2 | Houston Astros | 80.80% | 7.60% | 64.80% | 0.93 |
| #3 | Oakland Athletics | 11.40% | 1.10% | 3.40% | 0.92 |
| #4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.50% | 6.50% | 27.00% | 0.92 |
| #5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 98.30% | 14.20% | 80.60% | 0.7 |
| #6 | San Francisco Giants | 51.80% | 4.40% | 20.00% | 0.51 |
| #7 | Kansas City Royals | 72.00% | 6.10% | 61.40% | 0.43 |
| #8 | New York Yankees | 50.00% | 3.50% | 26.40% | 0.42 |
| #9 | Baltimore Orioles | 49.90% | 4.90% | 25.60% | 0.41 |
| #10 | Chicago Cubs | 48.40% | 2.10% | 4.00% | 0.36 |
| #11 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 79.20% | 5.60% | 15.10% | 0.26 |
| #12 | Tampa Bay Rays | 40.80% | 3.80% | 19.10% | 0.26 |
| #13 | Cleveland Indians | 17.60% | 1.40% | 10.60% | 0.23 |
| #14 | Cincinnati Reds | 4.70% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.21 |
| #15 | Washington Nationals | 78.80% | 8.40% | 74.90% | 0.18 |
| #16 | Detroit Tigers | 22.60% | 2.10% | 14.20% | 0.16 |
| #17 | Los Angeles Angels | 42.20% | 3.20% | 20.00% | 0.06 |
| #18 | New York Mets | 21.40% | 0.90% | 14.60% | -0.15 |
| #19 | Seattle Mariners | 7.90% | 0.70% | 2.50% | -0.28 |
| #20 | Texas Rangers | 22.80% | 1.00% | 9.20% | -0.32 |
| #21 | Boston Red Sox | 6.50% | 0.20% | 2.00% | -0.44 |
| #22 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.70% | 0.10% | 1.50% | -0.47 |
| #23 | Miami Marlins | 2.70% | 0.10% | 2.00% | -0.51 |
| #24 | San Diego Padres | 6.50% | 0.30% | 1.60% | -0.6 |
| #25 | Atlanta Braves | 12.60% | 0.40% | 8.50% | -0.74 |
| #26 | Minnesota Twins | 21.60% | 0.70% | 13.10% | -0.87 |
| #27 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.04 |
| #28 | Colorado Rockies | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -1.26 |
| #29 | Chicago White Sox | 1.20% | 0.10% | 0.70% | -1.43 |
| #30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.8 |
