MLB Power Rankings Update: Too Early Wildcard Picture

National League Wildcard Picture

This could be another exciting race to the finish for the two wildcard spots, but we have a considerably smaller field in the National League. The Phillies and Brewers are already 11 or more games behind the second wildcard spot, and the Rockies are nine games behind, essentially eliminating each team as they have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs combined.

Next are a handful of teams that have a more than a 1% chance to make the playoffs but less than 15%. The Braves are at the head of this group, despite ranking 25th overall in our power rankings with a -0.74 nERD. The Padres are a spot ahead of the Braves in the rankings, but have half of the chance to make the playoffs (thanks mostly to the Dodgers and Giants).

The Reds are the odd bunch, as they are 13th in our rankings but have only a five percent chance at making the playoffs. We can thank the rest of the National League Central for that.

Not many teams have a shot at the Cardinals, though the Pirates are putting all the pressure they can on them. And if the Pirates fall out of playoff contention, the Cubs will be right there to try to take advantage. It's like the American League East -- the division is well represented within our rankings but because playoffs are not determined solely by record, some good teams could miss the playoffs.

The contenders currently for the two wildcard spots will likely come down to four teams. Because the Pirates and Giants are trying to topple their respective division rivals for their division titles, they should remain near the top of the wildcard standings and they have a a 79.2% and 51.8% chance, respectively, to make the playoffs. We should expect the Cubs to factor in (48.4%) and shouldn't forget about the Mets either (21.4%).