MLB

Fantasy Baseball: Hitters Who Outperformed the Traditional Platoon Splits Theory in 2016

We generally assume lefties hit right-handers better and vice versa, but finding the ones who perform opposite of conventional thought can give you an edge.

Back in the old days, there wasn't a whole lot of strategy with regard to which hitters played and which didn't in fantasy baseball -- your studs were always in the lineup if they had a game, no matter what.

But times, they're a-changin'. While Ron Burgundy may have never heard that song, fantasy baseball owners have and they can thank daily fantasy sports for that. DFS has literally changed the game on a day-to-day basis because it's forcing owners to research the details of a matchup more in depth than ever before, and one of those areas is platoon splits.

As a general rule of thumb, it's a good idea to avoid a left-handed hitter facing a left-handed pitcher, and vice versa. That rule doesn't pertain to certain studs, but it's still a rather popular theory. With that in mind, it's advantageous to leverage hitters who buck that particular trend and produce at an above-average rate in that situation.

To help get the fantasy baseball 2017 research going in the dead of the offseason, we found players who outperformed the traditional platoon splits theory this past season, thanks to FanGraphs' new splits leaderboards, in order to see if there are any trends to take advantage of.

Hitters Who Excelled Lefty vs. Lefty in 2016

Without wasting time, let's just get into it, shall we? Below is a table of the top-performing left-handed hitters who accumulated at least 60 plate appearances against the left-handed pitchers.

There are a bunch of advanced stats to give context, but the criteria to be here was they had to post at least an .800 OPS in 2016.

Name Team PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Hard% OPS
Michael Saunders TOR 123 8.13% 29.27% .294 147 32.88% .927
Daniel Murphy WSN 173 5.20% 10.40% .219 139 31.21% .924
Freddie Freeman ATL 226 9.29% 28.32% .212 140 43.94% .902
Brandon Belt SFG 212 14.15% 22.64% .212 143 32.82% .883
David Ortiz BOS 152 10.53% 13.16% .172 130 44.83% .867
Joey Votto CIN 182 10.99% 22.53% .151 130 30.25% .861
Ichiro Suzuki MIA 70 12.86% 20.00% .085 139 15.22% .859
Michael Bourn 2 Tms 75 5.33% 25.33% .100 122 28.85% .844
Charlie Blackmon COL 195 5.64% 13.85% .120 112 24.67% .843
Didi Gregorius NYY 161 2.48% 7.45% .149 126 22.86% .834
Anthony Rizzo CHC 205 9.27% 13.17% .205 126 24.83% .832
Kole Calhoun LAA 175 9.71% 18.29% .174 130 33.06% .830
Ezequiel Carrera TOR 78 6.41% 21.79% .123 123 25.00% .824
Kevin Kiermaier TBR 99 10.10% 22.22% .190 125 34.92% .816
Matt Carpenter STL 174 12.64% 19.54% .176 119 30.51% .809


Immediately, there are a few I would throw out -- like Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Bourn and Ezequiel Carrera.

Mostly because the sample size is smaller than the rest, but also because if you're going against the grain, you want that power upside to come along with it. Since none of them posted an average ISO (Isolated Power) above .123 in 2016, it's probably best to avoid them, especially at the start of next season.

Daniel Murphy has always hit left-handed pitching well, but the power wasn't there (.280/.314/.398 versus lefties for his career). As we can see, that's changed, but it wouldn't be shocking for DFSers not to obey the general platoon splits theory since he had a breakout campaign.

The other three at the top -- Michael Saunders, Freddie Freeman and Brandon Belt -- are interesting and could potentially fly under the radar.

Saunders hasn't been known to hit lefties well throughout his career (.686 OPS), so this could be an aberration. However, he had such a terrible second half (.638 OPS) that his ownership levels could be low at the start of 2017, even if he performs well. If this trend continues, ride it until it ends.

Freeman is fresh off a career year in the power department, and while his recent success against lefties doesn't span across his career, he took a significant step forward in his overall development as a hitter. Belt has been solid over the years, but isn't in the same tier as those elite first baseman (like, Anthony Rizzo). So, he could be a valuable pivot when necessary.

As a frame of reference, below is a table displaying the league average in each category for the 76 total left-handers who accumulated 60-plus plate appearances against southpaws last year, compared with the average of the top performers:

PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Hard% OPS
2016 League Average 139 7.53% 21.79% .126 84 28.28% .682
2016 Top Performers Average 153 8.85% 19.20% .172 130 30.39% .857


Hitters Who Excelled Righty vs. Righty in 2016

The same parameters were used (at least 60 plate appearances and .800 OPS) to find the right-handed batters who excelled the most in 2016 against right-handed pitchers, but the sample size is much greater (246 players total).

There are a lot of familiar names, but some other intriguing options, as well.

Name Team PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Hard% OPS
Gary Sanchez NYY 166 9.04% 22.29% .351 188 40.18% 1.093
T.J. Rivera NYM 78 3.85% 8.97% .214 162 25.37% .997
Mike Trout LAA 523 17.02% 21.03% .238 172 40.26% .992
Trea Turner WSN 259 4.63% 17.76% .258 159 33.00% .985
Miguel Cabrera DET 503 9.74% 16.10% .258 156 40.81% .966
Josh Donaldson TOR 540 14.81% 17.78% .272 156 41.01% .960
Nolan Arenado COL 508 8.07% 13.78% .289 131 37.72% .951
Jose Altuve HOU 531 7.72% 8.29% .196 153 32.73% .942
Aledmys Diaz STL 330 8.79% 13.03% .237 147 33.07% .941
Mark Trumbo BAL 501 8.18% 25.15% .300 146 39.88% .932
J.D. Martinez DET 385 10.39% 25.71% .236 147 39.09% .925
Justin Turner LAD 424 5.90% 17.22% .258 146 37.22% .919
Mookie Betts BOS 591 6.94% 11.17% .208 141 32.99% .917
DJ LeMahieu COL 456 9.43% 12.06% .132 127 34.65% .903
Jean Segura ARI 526 5.13% 12.36% .188 135 30.26% .900
Jung Ho Kang PIT 288 7.99% 20.14% .275 139 38.97% .896
Kris Bryant CHC 513 9.94% 23.00% .239 139 40.18% .896
Nick Castellanos DET 323 6.81% 23.53% .214 139 35.59% .894
Trevor Story COL 297 6.73% 30.30% .290 113 39.67% .883
Drew Butera KCR 103 5.83% 26.21% .211 135 25.71% .883
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 553 10.67% 19.53% .264 132 37.53% .881
Jonathan Lucroy 2 Tms 410 7.80% 16.83% .195 129 33.11% .874
Ryan Braun MIL 423 7.33% 18.44% .226 124 32.80% .869
Evan Longoria TBR 532 6.02% 21.05% .262 131 37.05% .866
Mark Reynolds COL 305 8.85% 25.57% .201 114 28.57% .865
Nelson Cruz SEA 449 8.46% 24.28% .229 135 34.92% .864
Manny Machado BAL 528 6.25% 17.99% .252 124 34.92% .862
Brian Dozier MIN 532 8.65% 19.55% .262 126 33.33% .862
Ryon Healy OAK 214 4.67% 22.43% .213 131 29.03% .853
Paul Goldschmidt ARI 542 14.02% 21.59% .183 120 35.76% .850
Adrian Beltre TEX 491 6.52% 10.59% .207 121 33.92% .842
Willson Contreras CHC 204 10.78% 25.49% .213 125 33.86% .841
Carlos Correa HOU 486 10.29% 21.19% .186 129 35.98% .839
Yoenis Cespedes NYM 438 7.31% 20.32% .244 123 37.42% .839
Devon Travis TOR 331 6.04% 20.24% .171 125 30.74% .838
Starling Marte PIT 433 4.39% 17.55% .155 126 34.88% .837
Jedd Gyorko STL 284 7.75% 23.94% .295 118 35.57% .836
Jose Bautista TOR 412 17.72% 21.12% .220 126 40.96% .834
Sean Rodriguez PIT 248 6.85% 29.44% .242 120 40.91% .831
C.J. Cron LAA 343 5.25% 17.20% .201 126 33.33% .829
Dustin Pedroia BOS 562 7.65% 9.96% .136 120 32.83% .827
Jose Abreu CHW 551 6.17% 17.42% .159 118 31.05% .816
Khris Davis OAK 462 6.28% 27.92% .276 119 39.39% .815
David Wright NYM 121 15.70% 29.75% .218 124 46.15% .814
Alex Bregman HOU 155 6.45% 24.52% .228 118 29.91% .813
Anthony Recker ATL 83 13.25% 18.07% .152 120 32.73% .812
Ian Kinsler DET 500 6.00% 16.60% .189 118 33.87% .809
Wilson Ramos WSN 409 6.36% 16.14% .158 115 35.56% .806
J.T. Realmuto MIA 446 5.38% 17.04% .123 117 30.90% .806
Chris Carter MIL 484 11.36% 33.68% .265 107 41.15% .803
Hunter Pence SFG 313 9.90% 21.41% .129 121 27.57% .802
Cameron Maybin DET 278 7.91% 17.27% .096 120 23.41% .801


You know those familiar names I'm talking about -- players like Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson and Jose Altuve, among others. We're not going to talk about them because they fall in that "matchup-proof" bucket most of us are already aware of.

There are two other buckets to note here, though -- rookies with limited big-league service time and others you'd never think about playing in traditionally unfavorable platoon situations.

The rookie bucket includes plenty with top-prospect pedigree, such as Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Willson Contreras and Gary Sanchez. They all performed very well in this situation (Sanchez is in another category by himself), but we're still not sure what their "norm" is going to be in the Majors. Looking at minor-league splits is helpful, but it's something to monitor as they gain experience and word about how to get them out travels around the league.

Those who surprisingly bucked the traditional platoon split school of thought include Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter, Jedd Gyorko, Khristopher Davis and Mark Reynolds. Whether it's their past history or role on their respective teams, these are the guys I least expected to appear here.

The masses would generally stay away from them with a right-handed starting pitcher on the mound, and probably nobody would blame them. That also creates potential opportunity for you if the situation is right and a trend has formed, though.

For another frame of reference, here's the league average for right-handed hitters against right-handed pitchers (with at least 60 plate appearances) compared to the top performers:

PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Hard% OPS
2016 League Average 280 7.15% 22.20% .152 88 30.78% .707
2016 Top Performers Average 392 8.37% 19.81% .219 132 34.95% .875

Conclusion

This exercise wasn't done to solidify the fact that Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant and Joey Votto (among others) are some of baseball's best. Just as we talked about with starting pitchers who overperformed or got a little unlucky last season, we're trying to find value in areas where others may not look.

Pouring through platoon splits pertains a little more to DFS than season-long fantasy baseball, but it's useful to everyone. You'd probably be one of the very few comfortable with picking up Drew Butera off the waiver wire with the sole purpose of his facing a right-hander before dropping him after the game finished.

Leveraging players who aren't as obviously good as others in this situation could mean saving a few extra bucks during the lineup construction phase, and we all know that saving a little money in one spot helps create a well-balanced roster, which can go a long way once the last out of the night is recorded.