DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 4/23/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitchers
Kenta Maeda ($10,000 on DraftKings): Kenta Maeda spent time as both a starter and a longer relief pitcher in 2018, and the numbers were elite. He put up a 28.8 percent strikeout rate along with a 3.42 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) despite a .321 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). With some more luck on his side, his numbers could be even better in 2019. Maeda has a bit of a tough matchup tonight against the Chicago Cubs, but he is talented enough to negate their offensive abilities.
Patrick Corbin ($8,800): This is a tough one. Patrick Corbin was so good last year and has been incredible in 2019, however tonight he is pitching in Coors Field. The discounted price of $8,800 certainly puts him in play though. He has been $10,000 or higher in every other game so far and with 9-plus strikeouts in three straight outings, the upside is too high to ignore even in his hitting environment. The Colorado Rockies are a team that certainly can struggle against left-handed pitching as their 27.3 strikeout rate — which is the 6th-worst in the majors — and .286 weighted on-base average (wOBA) — which ranks 21st — would indicate.
Value Pitcher
Erik Swanson ($7,700): With such a wonky pitching slate, it's not a bad idea to pay down and load up on bats. If you do so, Swanson and Zack Wheeler ($7,900) have some appeal. Let's focus on Swanson, who draws a road start against the San Diego Padres. Swanson has just eight MLB frames to his name, but he's been good with a 29.0% strikeout rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. In 72 1/3 innings at Triple-A last year, he posted a 26.8% strikeout rate, 11.4% swinging-strike rate and 4.8% walk rate, so he's got a nice track record. In addition to getting to pitch at Petco, Swanson is facing a San Diego offense that ranks 27th in home wOBA (.277) with the sixth-worst strikeout rate (26.4%) in the split.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Christian Yelich ($5,800): This. Man. Does. Not. Stop. Well, last night he didn't do anything, but Christian Yelich has hit 8 home runs over the last 8 games, tallying 16 RBI in that stretch. Tonight he's taking on a pitcher with little experience in the Majors and nothing to be encouraged about in the Minor Leagues either. In almost 100 innings in the Minors, Daniel Poncedeleon had a 4.83 xFIP which just shows that his 2.24 ERA may have been a bit of a mirage. His .272 BABIP would also back up that theory. Yelich is matchup proof and this could certainly be a matchup that he thrives in.
Tim Anderson ($5,100): Will the real Tim Anderson please stand up? With a career .264 batting average, nobody would have expected Anderson to bat .403 through 75 plate appearances in 2019. Of course this is going to come down, but perhaps he is seeing the ball better now. His atrocious 2.7 percent walk rate in 2019 needs to come up much higher, but he has also improved his strikeout rate to 18.7 percent which is a significant improvement for him — down from his career 25.7 percent.
Tommy Pham ($4,800): Tommy Pham is a late bloomer, and you may not realize that he is 31-years-old. But, that doesn't really matter, just an oddball note. Pham has a premium matchup against the Kansas City Royals right-hander Homer Bailey — a pitcher that has been terrible. In 2018, Bailey gave up a horrific 40.9 percent hard-hit rate and 33.0 percent fly-ball rate which led to an abysmal 18.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. While Pham doesn't have the most power in the world with his .212 isolated power (ISO), a .398 wOBA is solid and this matchup is too good to ignore.
Value Hitters
Mike Tauchman ($4,100): This might seem expensive for Mike Tauchman, but he's brought a lot of power against right-handed pitching. When you're taking on a pitcher like Chris Stratton that gives up a brutal 41.8 percent hard-hit rate and 90.1 mile-per-hour average exit velocity, which led to a 13.1 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate, you're less concerned about the price tag. Tauchman brings an elite .387 ISO against righties with a modest .369 wOBA.
Matt Carpenter ($4,000): Matt Carpenter has struggled a bit this season against right-handed pitching. In 2018, he smashed righties with a .385 wOBA and a .280 ISO while his 2019 numbers are a lowly .320 wOBA and .197 ISO. With a career .316 BABIP, there is certainly reason to believe his numbers should improve this season as his .271 is significantly lower. He has a solid matchup tonight against Milwaukee Brewers' right-hander Zach Davies, who gave up an ugly 39.5 percent hard-hit rate and 30.2 percent fly-ball rate which resulted in a 13.1 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate last year. Giving up this type of power is something that can certainly help Carpenter get back on track.
Justin Turner ($3,600): Now we get to an extremely underpriced hitter that is underperforming considerably. Justin Turner has been terrible against lefties this season with a brutal .201 wOBA and .042 ISO. Now, he has been better against righties throughout his career, but his .349 wOBA and .166 ISO career numbers against southpaws give me confidence that Turner should be able to get things going again. He'll take on Cubs lefty Jose Quintana who gave up a .323 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
