DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 5/10/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($10,600 on DraftKings): This would typically go to Justin Verlander, but the Texas Rangers have smashed right-handed pitching this season so we're going to drop down slightly with Luis Castillo. He has jumped close to ace territory with his play this season. In 2018, Castillo had a 23.3 percent strikeout rate, and that has climbed to a 30.3 percent rate in 2019. He has had seven-plus strikeouts in seven of his eight starts — eclipsing 20 DraftKings points in all but two. He'll take on a San Francisco Giants team that only strikes out 23.3 percent of the time against right-handed pitching, which ranks as the 14th most, but their team weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .294 is 25th.
Zack Wheeler ($9,700): The Miami Marlins are an absolute disaster this season with a .270 winning percentage. Their numbers against right-handed pitching have been a nightmare as well, which tells a large part of the story. They have a .264 wOBA against righties (dead last in the majors) and strike out 26.8 percent of the time (third-most in all of baseball). Zack Wheeler had a solid strikeout rate last season, striking out opponents at a 24.1 percent clip. That number is up a bit this year at 25.8 percent, and he looks to increase it in a cupcake matchup tonight.
Value Pitcher
Trevor Cahill ($7,100): Cahill's numbers this season have been horrific, which is obviously a concern. He was an elite groundball pitcher in 2018 with an incredible 53.4 percent groundball rate, but that as plummeted to a 38 percent groundball rate. That's especially concerning when his fly-ball rate is up to 42.6 percent, from 27.2 percent last year. However, his opponent — the Baltimore Orioles — are a team that has struggled a bit against right-handed pitching. They have just a .299 team wOBA against righties which ranks 22nd and their 21.5 percent soft-contact leads the Majors (which is a bad thing).
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Rhys Hoskins ($5,500): Homer Bailey is the cheapest pitcher on the slate for a reason. Despite a few fantastic outings this season, he is a bad pitcher worth targeting every time he's in action. He gave up an abysmal 40.9 percent hard-hit rate and a 24.4 percent line-drive rate in 2018 — numbers that will result in a lot of hits. In addition, he gave up a slate-worst 1.95 home runs per 9 innings, which bodes well for Rhys Hoskins and his elite power against righties. Hoskins was among the best last season with his .380 wOBA and .288 isolated power (ISO) against righties and those numbers are just as good this season.
Shohei Ohtani ($4,900): With just a couple games under his belt in 2019, Shohei Ohtani is looking to use this hitter-only season to really show what he can do at the plate, though he did already dominate last year. His rookie season was a success as a dual-threat on the mound and at the plate, resulting in his winning the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Ohtani will not pitch this season but will have plenty of time to DH — something he did with great success. Against right-handed pitching as a rookie, Ohtani was ridiculous with his .433 wOBA and incredible .344 ISO.
Jose Ramirez ($4,500): Things have started to, sort of, turn around for Jose Ramirez. He has finally pulled his batting average above .200, and given his success over the last couple seasons there is reason to believe that he should be able to right this ship. He'll take on Oakland Athletics' right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas — who in 65 innings last season gave up a 46.1 percent hard-hit rate and 24.9 percent line-drive rate with a 4.86 SIERA. Ramirez on the other hand crushed righties to the tune of an elite .410 wOBA and .315 ISO.
Value Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900): On the surface Paul Goldschmidt's numbers may seem poor, but he has still destroyed right-handed pitching which makes his matchup tonight an intriguing one at this bargain price for a player of his talent. So far this season, Goldy has put up a .351 wOBA and .238 ISO against righties which is certainly acceptable. In addition, all nine of his home runs have come against righties, albeit in more than six times as many plate appearances as lefties. The St. Louis Cardinals went bananas last night so there could be some recency bias and inflated ownership on the Cardinals stacks in general, but as well as for Goldschmidt.
Ian Kinsler ($3,600): This is a hitter that just looks pretty bad with his age. However, this price tag while leading off in Coors Field is hard to ignore. His .177 average and .565 OPS are ugly, but he does have 4 home runs and should get plenty of plate appearances as a leadoff hitter tonight. It is certainly a tough matchup as he'll face German Marquez of the Colorado Rockies. Though 2019 Marquez has been quite different than the emerging ace from 2018. Marquez has given up a 40.3 percent hard-hit rate and 28.1 percent fly-ball rate which has led to a brutal 17.9 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate this season. The fly-ball rate is low, but when they're in the air this season it seems like they're leaving the park.
Joey Votto ($3,500): Much like Goldschmidt, this just seems like a player that is way too cheap due to a small(ish) sample size. Joey Votto has just a .313 wOBA and .141 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, which aren't great. His .385 wOBA from last season was much better and among the best, although his .146 ISO is on the same level as his current number. He may be adjusting too much, but he is always adjusting things to try and improve so hopefully he does that. His matchup against San Francisco Giants right-hander Dereck Rodriguez is a great one as his 39.4 percent hard-hit rate and 23.1 percent line-drive rate are pretty ugly.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
