DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 7/15/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($11,200 on DraftKings): There is an argument to be made that Lucas Giolito is getting a bit lucky this season. You see a .262 BABIP and 3.15 ERA versus a 3.91 SIERA, and it is reasonable to believe that. But there are also numbers that indicate he has been great. He has an elite 30.1 percent strikeout rate, and keeping the ball in the park is a specialty of his as his 0.81 homers per nine is second only to Luis Castillo's 0.76 mark. Giolito will face a Kansas City Royals team that strikes out at just a 22.8 percent clip -- 16th-most in the Majors -- but their .309 team wOBA is poor and ranks 21st. Giolito is in play in all formats.
Blake Snell ($10,000): In what is certainly a tough matchup against the New York Yankees, Blake Snell is the best raw pitcher on the slate. He leads the way with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate, and his inflated .351 BABIP and 4.70 ERA versus a 3.47 SIERA are polar opposites of what Giolito is dealing with. Snell has clearly been a product of some bad luck this year, and while the matchup against the Yankees is a difficult one, the upside is real whenever Snell takes the mound. The Yankees have actually struggled against lefties this season, with a 24.4 percent strikeout rate (ninth-most) and .307 wOBA (21st).
Value Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($4,600): Josh James will open tonight's game, with Framber Valdez coming in as the primary pitcher. Now, Valdez has certainly had some issues this season, and a 19.9 percent strikeout rate is not encouraging by any means. However, his 60.4 percent groundball rate is incredible. The price is so low that we're looking for about a 10-to-15-point output tonight against the Los Angeles Angels for us to be happy.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Trevor Story ($5,500): I told myself I would limit my writing of Coors Field games, but we continue to see great matchups in Denver. The Colorado Rockies will take on Dereck Rodriguez, who sits dead last on this slate with his 5.46 SIERA, which is only slightly worse than his 5.27 ERA. He's allowing a 45.7 percent hard-hit rate -- not what you want to bring with you in a game at Coors. Trevor Story has smashed right-handed pitching this season with a .380 wOBA and .289 ISO. He's a great play tonight.
Lourdes Gurriel ($5,500): I still cannot believe that Rick Porcello won a Cy Young award. Anyway, that season is long gone, and Porcello has been brutal this year. He's got a 5.33 ERA versus a 4.96 SIERA, which ranks as the third-worst on the slate. In addition to that, he has a lowly 18.3 percent strikeout rate and a gaudy 41.2 percent fly-ball rate. Porcello's 33.6 percent hard-hit rate helps keep the ball in the park, but Lourdes Gurriel brings power on his own with a .348 wOBA and .244 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Pablo Sandoval ($4,800): With a Coors matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez, a pitcher who has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career, Pablo Sandoval is firmly in play. Gonzalez has given up a .331 wOBA and .354 slugging percentage against lefties. Sandoval has brought plenty of power against right-handed pitching, and playing in the most hitter-friendly park in the Majors should only help. With a .349 wOBA and .283 ISO, Panda is a very intriguing today.
Value Hitters
J.T. Realmuto ($3,800): This is a "good hitter in a tough matchup" situation with J.T. Realmuto going head-to-head with Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw, though, is giving up a crazy 40.8 percent hard-hit rate, though they have mostly been groundballs (51.1 percent groundball rate). Realmuto has had plenty of success against left-handed pitchers this season, putting up a .367 wOBA and .244 ISO against southpaws.
Kyle Schwarber ($3,600): This seems to be somewhat of a theme today as we see solid hitters in tough matchups. Usually the pitcher wins out in these battles, but with a guy who has power like Kyle Schwarber, one swing can pay off the cheap price tag. Schwarber owns a solid .334 wOBA and .247 ISO against right-handed pitchers and will take on Cincinnati Reds ace Luis Castillo. Castillo has struggled with his control as he has a slate-worst 12.3 percent walk rate. Schwarber carries a 12.6 percent walk rate and is always capable of going deep.
Derek Dietrich ($3,400): This seems like a pretty cheap price for Derek Dietrich considering his matchup. He'll take on Chicago Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has been pretty mediocre across the board this season. With a lowly 21.5 percent strikeout rate, Hendricks isn't someone who we should be going out of our way to avoid. Dietrich has some big-time pop -- .383 wOBA and .361 ISO against righties -- and the wind is blowing out today at Wrigley.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
