3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for 7/23/19
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of Vegas totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-owned plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Dallas Keuchel, P, Atlanta Braves
FanDuel Price: $7,200
A loaded 15-game slate has every team in play, but who are some options we can look towards for tournaments tonight?
The veteran lefty pitcher, Dallas Keuchel, is off to a solid start with his new team and in a spot to continue that success against a weaker Kansas City Royals lineup. After signing with the Atlanta Braves, Keuchel has six starts and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of those games. The usual stuff from a pitcher who lives on his 57.7% ground-ball rate, something that has always allowed him to limit the damage. He isn't a big strikeout pitcher by any means, only 13.8% tonight, but Keuchel has managed to pick up the quality start in three of his last four games, along with three wins so far, something which can add plenty of fantasy points.
While he lacks strikeout upside, the potential for a very low scoring game from the Royals is certainly in play since they come in with an 81 wRC+ (26th in the league), .143 ISO (27th in the league), and a 34.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. They can't generate power, they don't hit fly balls, and haven't proven to be too much of a threat this season.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Price: $2,900
The Cincinnati Reds had an impressive comeback win last night, but can they keep the run production up tonight?
A modest 4.46 implied run total for the Reds has them behind 10 teams tonight, which should make them one of the lowered owned options. There are simply better offenses with higher implied run totals compared to the Reds tonight, but that shouldn't deter you from rostering their players. One player to keep an eye on is Jesse Winker, who clocks in under $3K tonight and has some serious power versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Winker is carrying a .234 ISO, 43.1% fly-ball rate, and a surprising 27.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season versus righty pitchers. Those are numbers you want to see when the Reds are visiting the Milwaukee Brewers, which is a solid hitter's park. Winker is cheap, has great power numbers in this split, and in a great hitter's park, the ideal combination on a large slate.
Franmil Reyes, OF, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Price: $2,900
Will visiting a pitcher's park cause the San Diego Padres to go overlooked tonight?
San Diego is on the road to take on the New York Mets, which as mentioned, is a pitcher's park, but they have Jason Vargas on the mound tonight. The former isn't ideal, but the latter is something we should be looking to attack. Vargas comes into this game carrying a horrible 5.27 xFIP, 40.9% hard-hit rate, and a 42.9% fly-ball rate against right-handed hitters this season. When you see numbers like that for a pitcher, you should jump at the opportunity to stack them, especially, if they are going to be lower owned simply due to the park factor.
Franmil Reyes has some SERIOUS power numbers this season if we take a look at his StatCast data. He ranks in the 91st percentile or higher for exit velocity, hard-hit %, xwOBA, and xSLG, according to Baseball Savant. Just because the park factor isn't ideal, doesn't mean he isn't bringing his power to his at-bats, along with his serious splits this season. A .305 ISO, 50.0% hard-hit rate and 36.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitchers is nothing to shy away from when he could come in at lower ownership tonight.
