MLB Sim Sports Picks for 4/25/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 7:30 p.m. EST.
Pitchers
We have a clear top two on tonight's slate -- in both salary and ability -- in Max Scherzer ($12,000) and Walker Buehler ($11,000).
Scherzer has the edge for me, and he's boosted by a road matchup with the San Francisco Giants, owners of the third-worst wOBA (.295) in 2019. Scherzer recorded a 35.1% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate and 16.3% swinging-strike rate a year ago, and his floor/ceiling combination is unmatched on this slate.
Buehler is on the road at the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 2019, Buehler put up a 29.2% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate and 12.1% swinging-strike rate. He's finished with SIERAs of 3.31 and 3.50 in his two seasons, and even though Buehler's matchup isn't as cozy as Scherzer's, Buehler is capable of having a big game here.
I won't venture away from Scherzer and Buehler much today, but if I do, I'll likely land on Max Fried ($7,400). Fried is at home versus the New York Mets, and given the numbers Fried had last campaign -- 24.6% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 11.4% swinging-strike rate -- he's probably too cheap. Fried's salary makes it easier to get exposure to Coors.
Stacks
We have a Coors game (the Milwaukee Brewers at the Colorado Rockies), but we'll skip over that contest -- you don't need me to tell you that you want exposure to Coors.
Outside of Coors, my top stack is the Texas Rangers, who are at home against Taijuan Walker. Walker has pitched just 14 frames over the last two years, and in 2017, his last full season, he posted a meager 8.6% swinging-strike rate across 157 1/3 innings.
Joey Gallo ($3,600) is the only Texas bat above $3,200, so they're a great stack to use if you're paying up for Scherzer or Buehler. Gallo had a .371 wOBA with the platoon advantage last year, sporting a gaudy 53.5% hard-hit rate in the split. Shin-Soo Choo ($3,200), Danny Santana ($3,200) and Willie Calhoun ($2,900) are hitting 1-2-3 in the order -- right in front of Gallo -- and will all bat from the left side.
I also like the Toronto Blue Jays as a cheaper stack that still offers some upside. Bo Bichette ($3,600) is the lone Jay above $3,300, and Toronto is up against Alex Cobb. Cobb hasn't had a strikeout rate better than 17.3% since 2014, and he had a a 15.4% strikeout rate in 2018, his last full year.
Bichette, Cavan Biggio ($3,300), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,000), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,800) and Randal Grichuk ($2,700) are locked into the top five spots in the lineup. Vlad is one of the slate's top point-per-dollar plays for me.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
