FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/10/20
We may not have a slate chock full of aces, but there's still some solid pitching value available on tonight's nine-game offering. And while Coors Field leads the way for our bats, we shouldn't overlook some of the cheap stacks we can also roster.
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On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel main slate. Below are tonight's projected starters with their 2019-20 stats. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ also date back to last year and are against a given pitcher's handedness using up-to-date active rosters, per FanGraphs.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | $10,800 | L | @NYM | 3.79 | 28.8% | 8.1% | 22.8% | 110 |
| Kyle Gibson | $8,700 | R | SEA | 4.21 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 25.7% | 88 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | $8,400 | R | SFG | 4.78 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 24.3% | 91 |
| Adrian Houser | $8,000 | R | MIN | 3.92 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 21.3% | 118 |
| Dallas Keuchel | $7,800 | L | @DET | 4.29 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 24.9% | 104 |
| Dustin May | $7,500 | R | SDP | 3.55 | 23.7% | 4.0% | 25.0% | 91 |
| Steven Matz | $7,300 | L | WAS | 4.43 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 20.0% | 107 |
| Randy Dobnak | $7,000 | R | @MIL | 3.89 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 24.0% | 103 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | $6,900 | L | @BOS | 4.15 | 20.3% | 3.9% | 20.1% | 113 |
| Julio Teheran | $6,700 | R | OAK | 5.12 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 23.1% | 109 |
| Jon Gray | $6,500 | R | ARI | 4.42 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 21.8% | 96 |
| Sean Manaea | $6,400 | L | @LAA | 3.70 | 25.6% | 4.9% | 20.4% | 99 |
| Robbie Ray | $6,300 | L | @COL | 4.10 | 31.0% | 11.7% | 24.9% | 89 |
| Logan Webb | $6,000 | R | @HOU | 4.52 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 16.8% | 126 |
| Michael Fulmer | $5,800 | R | CWS | 5.75 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 25.9% | 105 |
| Justin Dunn | $5,600 | R | @TEX | 7.88 | 17.7% | 25.8% | 25.3% | 87 |
| Luis Perdomo | $5,500 | R | @LOS | 4.14 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 20.1% | 122 |
| Ryan Brasier | $5,500 | R | TAM | 4.10 | 25.1% | 8.9% | 24.4% | 98 |
Let's check out the top spots on tonight's slate.
Pitchers
Patrick Corbin ($10,800) is the slate's most expensive hurler and is the only one priced over $10k. He's rattled off 16 punchouts (34.0% strikeout rate) over 12.0 innings, so we should feel pretty confident in his ability to miss bats tonight, but the matchup against the Mets is mediocre at best. The good news is that pitcher-friendly Citi Field should help level the playing field, and there's little question that Corbin is the night's top pitcher from a talent perspective. He's probably the "safest" option, but there's some value to be found in the lower ranks.
One of those alternatives is Kyle Gibson ($8,700), who may not have particularly noteworthy numbers above but is coming off a nine-strikeout game against the Athletics. While we shouldn't expect Gibson to maintain his current 28.3% strikeout rate, we've seen his rate rise each of the past two seasons, and he managed a noteworthy 13.1% swinging-strike rate in 2019. Coupled with a high ground-ball rate, he could have some upside in a plus spot versus the Mariners.
Lance McCullers ($8,400) follows Gibson in salary, but he's produced troubling peripherals over three starts. I'm not sure I can trust him despite a juicy matchup against the Giants.
Instead, Dustin May ($7,500) might do the trick as the slate's top value, with an inviting date with the Padres. May has produced a 2.98 SIERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, and 5.3% walk rate through three starts and notched eight punchouts against these same Padres his last time out. With improved velocity and top prospect pedigree, it's easy to be quite bullish on May moving forward. He also reached 82 pitches in that last start, so he should be at or close to fully stretched out now, too.
Hitters
Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks
Given the cheaper pitchers we can look to tonight, it won't be difficult to load up on Coors Field.
It's been the same old story for Robbie Ray this season, getting strikeouts (25.9%), issuing walks (16.7%), and allowing hard contact (47.4%). He's already given up 6 dingers in 13.1 innings, and it's easy to see why the Colorado Rockies are sporting a slate-high 6.01 implied total.
Against the southpaw, the edge naturally goes to right-handed sticks, with Trevor Story ($4,200) and Nolan Arenado ($4,200) earning top billing. Garrett Hampson ($3,000) could be leading off again, and Matt Kemp ($3,300) has been getting regular playing time, as well.
Hopefully, the Arizona Diamondbacks draw slightly less attention against Jon Gray because they're also in a great spot to excel. Gray may have a 3.31 ERA over three starts (two at Coors), but a 5.29 SIERA and 10.6% strikeout rate are hardly awe-inspiring, and his recent success seems to be more the byproduct of a .204 BABIP.
Most of Arizona's bats aren't overly priced up, either, and Kole Calhoun ($3,300) and Jake Lamb ($2,500) are affordable lefty sticks with pop who can help you roster the big guns.
Texas Rangers
We're taking about a tiny sample of 13.2 innings dating back to last year, but the fact remains that Justin Dunn has some of the worst numbers in today's chart. Even if we whittle things down to his two 2020 starts, things don't get much better with a 6.75 SIERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, and 21.9% walk rate. You're not going to make it very far walking guys at such a high clip.
Outside of Joey Gallo ($4,000) -- who's always a welcome addition to tournament lineups -- you can get pretty much this entire Texas Rangers lineup on the cheap. Shin-Soo Choo ($3,200), Rougned Odor ($2,800), and Willie Calhoun ($2,400) all make hard contact at a high rate and will have the platoon advantage against Dunn.
Chicago White Sox
Note that there's the potential for rain in Detroit, so bear that in mind, but if things are looking up closer to game time, the Chicago White Sox could be in line for a big score against opener Michael Fulmer and expected follow-up lefty Daniel Norris.
Neither pitcher performed well in their 2020 debuts, with Fulmer giving up 3 bombs in just 2.2 innings and Norris failing to record any strikeouts in 1.2 innings. Between Fulmer returning from Tommy John and Norris struggling with home runs last year, it's easy to see this going south quickly.
Similar to the Rangers, this is an inexpensive stack, too, as everyone comes in at $3,500 and below. The guys batting one through seven in tonight's order are all worthy of inclusion, with Yasmani Grandal ($2,800) and Jose Abreu ($3,100) being especially low-priced as middle-of-the-order bats.
