3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 4/5/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Steven Matz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+140)
This is a matchup of a high-strikeout pitcher versus a team that could strike out at a decent rate in the Texas Rangers on Monday afternoon.
Matz could have a bit of a resurgence with a change of scenery in Toronto. He enjoyed a career year in 2020 as far as strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) with 10.6. His career average is a respectable 8.6. The concern was that he only pitched a little over 30 innings last season.
His strikeout rate was 25.4% in 2020, and he goes up against a Texas team that was dead last in most hitting categories and carried a 25.5% strikeout rate last season.
Our projections may not be high on Matz, but the risk and plus bet is too much to pass up.
Matt Shoemaker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+134)
You might be thinking a 4.5 is just too high here, but Matt Shoemaker is pitching against the Detroit Tigers.
When we have a pitcher who struck out batters out at a rate of 8.2 per nine innings last year and 8.1 per nine for his career, this is a risk. Shoemaker ended 2020 with a 22.6% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging-strike rate.
However, Detroit just cannot help themselves due to a lack of plate discipline and swinging at bad pitches. They ranked dead last in walk rate (7.1%) and had the highest strikeout rate (27.3%) in the American League.
The only concern may just be how long Shoemaker can pitch. Most of his starts last five innings or less. However, it is early in the season, and the Minnesota Twins could surprise in a pitcher's ballpark.
Miguel Cabrera To Hit a Home Run (+380)
The risk and the juice are here to try Miguel Cabrera on a home-run prop. Hey, why not.
Cabrera is a pure power hitter and produced a home run at a rate of one every five games last season at the age of 37. Even when he has not been at his best, Cabrera is still a threat every time he steps up to the plate. He still has a hard-hit rate around 50%, per Baseball Savant, and Matt Shoemaker's hard-hit rate averages 44% over the past three seasons.
The good news is Cabrera will be battling cleanup this afternoon for the Tigers. He will not be "rested," so the DH is in play.
Chris Wassel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Chris Wassel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username chriswassel. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
