3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/11/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Brady Singer Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Brady Singer has struggled over his last couple of starts but sees a team that is dear to his heart. That's right! The Kansas City Royals pitcher faces the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night with a beefy +108 odds to strike out seven or more batters.
The righty got a bit wild in his last two starts -- and not just with walks, either. Against Minnesota, he only got 24 strikes on 48 pitches and was pulled after 2.0 innings. Then versus Cleveland, he was out of sorts again throwing just 55 strikes on 92 pitches, walking two batters but still having location problems. At least he was able to get eight swinging strikes wherein the start before, Singer had zero.
The Royals' starting pitcher just has to reel in the adrenaline. If he can keep his composure and control location, he could duplicate the eight strikeouts he had a few weeks ago in Detroit. After all, the Tigers have a strikeout rate of 29.6%, which is well above the league average. Take the over.
Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+340)
The New York Mets' infielder is beginning to heat up a little bit with a home run and four RBIs in his last three games. He is getting +340 odds to hit his third round-tripper of the 2021 season on Tuesday night.
2021 has seen everything that could possibly go wrong for Francisco Lindor. His career average slugging percentage is .481, but his number is .272 through the first six weeks as a New York Met. He is hitting below .200 and on pace for just 13 home runs this year.
Some may think this is a crazy risk given he has one home run every 51.5 at-bats so far. Also, John Means just pitched a no-hitter for the Baltimore Orioles. This may be the perfect time to take a shot, though, because Lindor is starting to snap out of whatever "rat funk" he was in.
Shane Bieber Under 9.5 Strikeouts (-108)
The risk here is very high. but the value is a hair better for now, as the expectation is that Bieber is projected to strike out around nine Chicago Cubs batters at home. The Cleveland Indians' starter is projected to make 9.11 batters whiff in frustration.
Shane Bieber is on a roll and has left off where he finished last season with a 14.3 K/9 rate, which is why this prop has such risk. If this number hits -110, then pass on it. In two of his last three starts, Bieber has punched out only -- and I say ONLY -- nine batters.
The big concern is that Bieber gets on a run and starts getting strikeouts left and right. The Cubs' strikeout rate is 26.5%, which is slightly above the National League average, but their at-bats per hit, home run (26.6), and RBI rates (7.3) are, as well. They may be able to get to the Cleveland starter before Bieber can get to 10 Ks.
Our model believes Bieber will pitch fewer than seven innings (6.79) tonight. That is why we say have faith in taking the under.
