MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 6/27/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Chad Kuhl | 11.5 | 6.53 | 63.5% | 47.8% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.5% |
| NYY | Paul Blackburn | 8.5 | 5.26 | 43.0% | 27.7% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| WSH | Zach Thompson | 9.5 | 5.13 | 40.7% | 25.7% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| TOR | Connor Seabold | 9.0 | 5.06 | 39.5% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| COL | Tyler Anderson | 11.5 | 4.97 | 37.9% | 23.3% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| LAA | Lucas Giolito | 8.5 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| TEX | Kris Bubic | 8.5 | 4.47 | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| PIT | Erick Fedde | 9.5 | 4.37 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| MIN | Triston McKenzie | 8.0 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| SEA | Tyler Wells | 7.5 | 4.09 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| KC | Martin Perez | 8.5 | 4.03 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| CHW | Noah Syndergaard | 8.5 | 4.00 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| BOS | Kevin Gausman | 9.0 | 3.94 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| STL | Pablo Lopez | 7.5 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| CLE | Sonny Gray | 8.0 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| MIA | Adam Wainwright | 7.5 | 3.59 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| BAL | George Kirby | 7.5 | 3.41 | 13.1% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| OAK | Jordan Montgomery | 8.5 | 3.24 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | BOS | 6.9 | 91.1% | 81.4% | 68.1% | 52.9% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.6% |
| Lucas Giolito | LAA | 6.2 | 86.8% | 74.5% | 59.1% | 43.1% | 28.8% | 17.7% | 10.1% |
| Pablo Lopez | STL | 5.7 | 81.9% | 67.1% | 50.3% | 34.4% | 21.5% | 12.2% | 6.4% |
| Triston McKenzie | MIN | 5.6 | 80.5% | 65.2% | 48.1% | 32.3% | 19.8% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
| Sonny Gray | CLE | 5.5 | 80.3% | 64.9% | 47.8% | 32.0% | 19.5% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
| Jordan Montgomery | OAK | 5.4 | 78.2% | 62.0% | 44.7% | 29.2% | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Adam Wainwright | MIA | 4.9 | 72.2% | 54.4% | 36.8% | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 4.8 | 70.0% | 51.6% | 34.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Martin Perez | KC | 4.7 | 69.2% | 50.7% | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| George Kirby | BAL | 4.7 | 68.9% | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Erick Fedde | PIT | 4.3 | 62.6% | 43.3% | 26.7% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | CHW | 4.2 | 60.8% | 41.4% | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Chad Kuhl | LAD | 4.0 | 56.1% | 36.5% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Wells | SEA | 3.7 | 49.7% | 30.5% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Kris Bubic | TEX | 3.7 | 49.5% | 30.3% | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Paul Blackburn | NYY | 3.6 | 48.3% | 29.2% | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Zach Thompson | WSH | 3.4 | 44.4% | 25.8% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Connor Seabold | TOR | 3.4 | 43.1% | 24.7% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | HR PF |
Opp Pitcher |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | MIN | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 29.6% | +238 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 28.1% | +256 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 103 | Paul Blackburn | 26.8% | +273 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | No | 103 | Lucas Giolito | 25.1% | +298 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 24.6% | +306 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 23.1% | +333 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | George Kirby | 22.7% | +341 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 20.8% | +381 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | 103 | Lucas Giolito | 20.8% | +381 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 99 | Tyler Wells | 20.7% | +383 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | 106 | Zach Thompson | 20.7% | +384 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 96 | George Kirby | 20.6% | +386 |
| Jorge Soler | MIA | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 19.9% | +401 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | No | 103 | Paul Blackburn | 19.7% | +408 |
| Joey Gallo | NYY | Yes | 109 | Paul Blackburn | 19.7% | +409 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | 108 | Lucas Giolito | 19.5% | +412 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 19.1% | +424 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 19.0% | +425 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 96 | George Kirby | 19.0% | +427 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 19.0% | +427 |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | Yes | 108 | Lucas Giolito | 18.3% | +447 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 99 | George Kirby | 18.0% | +457 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 103 | Paul Blackburn | 17.9% | +458 |
| Mitch Garver | TEX | Yes | 92 | Kris Bubic | 17.9% | +460 |
| Taylor Trammell | SEA | Yes | 96 | Tyler Wells | 17.8% | +460 |
| Juan Soto | WSH | Yes | 104 | Zach Thompson | 17.8% | +463 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 92 | Kris Bubic | 17.3% | +479 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | No | 109 | Tyler Anderson | 17.1% | +484 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 109 | Paul Blackburn | 17.1% | +485 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 16.7% | +500 |
| Josh Bell | WSH | Yes | 104 | Zach Thompson | 16.5% | +507 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 91 | Pablo Lopez | 16.2% | +516 |
| Jazz Chisholm | MIA | Yes | 97 | Adam Wainwright | 16.2% | +517 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 15.7% | +536 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 96 | George Kirby | 15.4% | +548 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 15.4% | +550 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 15.4% | +550 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 15.0% | +567 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 15.0% | +567 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | No | 92 | Kris Bubic | 14.9% | +570 |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | Yes | 97 | Adam Wainwright | 14.9% | +570 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 14.9% | +571 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 14.8% | +574 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | Tyler Wells | 14.8% | +576 |
| Jake Burger | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 14.7% | +579 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | 99 | Tyler Wells | 14.2% | +602 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 92 | Kris Bubic | 14.2% | +606 |
| Christian Bethancourt | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 14.1% | +609 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 14.0% | +612 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 13.9% | +620 |
| Dan Vogelbach | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 13.7% | +629 |
| Michael Chavis | PIT | No | 106 | Erick Fedde | 13.7% | +632 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | Yes | 108 | Noah Syndergaard | 13.4% | +646 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | 103 | Lucas Giolito | 13.3% | +650 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 13.3% | +650 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 13.1% | +661 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 13.1% | +662 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | No | 99 | George Kirby | 12.9% | +675 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 12.9% | +675 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 99 | George Kirby | 12.9% | +675 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | Yes | 103 | Triston McKenzie | 12.9% | +676 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 12.9% | +676 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | No | 92 | Kris Bubic | 12.8% | +680 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 12.6% | +691 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | Paul Blackburn | 12.6% | +692 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 12.4% | +705 |
| Hoy Park | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 12.2% | +717 |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | Yes | 103 | Triston McKenzie | 12.1% | +723 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 92 | Kris Bubic | 12.1% | +724 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | Pablo Lopez | 12.0% | +733 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | No | 92 | Kris Bubic | 11.7% | +754 |
| Trayce Thompson | LAD | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 11.6% | +760 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | No | 109 | Tyler Anderson | 11.6% | +764 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 11.5% | +769 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | No | 99 | Triston McKenzie | 11.5% | +769 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Yes | 96 | Tyler Wells | 11.4% | +775 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 11.2% | +796 |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | 108 | Lucas Giolito | 11.1% | +803 |
| Jonah Bride | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 11.0% | +807 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 10.8% | +822 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | Yes | 92 | Martin Perez | 10.7% | +833 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | KC | Yes | 92 | Martin Perez | 10.7% | +833 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 10.7% | +839 |
| Brandon Marsh | LAA | Yes | 108 | Lucas Giolito | 10.3% | +875 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 10.2% | +878 |
| Sheldon Neuse | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 10.2% | +879 |
| Tyler Nevin | BAL | No | 99 | George Kirby | 10.0% | +896 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 10.0% | +899 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 96 | George Kirby | 10.0% | +902 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 9.9% | +908 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | No | 106 | Zach Thompson | 9.9% | +912 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 9.8% | +917 |
| Nick Gordon | MIN | Yes | 103 | Triston McKenzie | 9.8% | +917 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 9.8% | +921 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 9.5% | +953 |
| Dylan Moore | SEA | No | 99 | Tyler Wells | 9.3% | +976 |
| Cesar Hernandez | WSH | Yes | 104 | Zach Thompson | 9.1% | +998 |
| Maikel Franco | WSH | No | 106 | Zach Thompson | 9.1% | +1002 |
| Jarren Duran | BOS | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 9.1% | +1004 |
| Matthew Duffy | LAA | No | 103 | Lucas Giolito | 8.8% | +1031 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 103 | Paul Blackburn | 8.8% | +1031 |
| Juan Yepez | STL | No | 91 | Pablo Lopez | 8.6% | +1061 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 97 | Pablo Lopez | 8.6% | +1069 |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 8.5% | +1072 |
| Edward Olivares | KC | Yes | 92 | Martin Perez | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 8.3% | +1103 |
| Michael Perez | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 8.3% | +1108 |
| Bligh Madris | PIT | Yes | 104 | Erick Fedde | 8.3% | +1108 |
| Luis Garcia | WSH | No | 106 | Zach Thompson | 8.2% | +1113 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 8.2% | +1119 |
| Andrew Benintendi | KC | No | 92 | Martin Perez | 8.2% | +1125 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 97 | Pablo Lopez | 7.8% | +1187 |
| Justin Upton | SEA | No | 99 | Tyler Wells | 7.7% | +1191 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 7.7% | +1191 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 7.7% | +1191 |
| Carlos Santana | KC | Yes | 92 | Martin Perez | 7.7% | +1199 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | 92 | Kris Bubic | 7.7% | +1199 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | Yes | 92 | Martin Perez | 7.7% | +1199 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 108 | Lucas Giolito | 7.7% | +1199 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | Yes | 104 | Zach Thompson | 7.4% | +1245 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 103 | Paul Blackburn | 7.2% | +1287 |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 7.1% | +1312 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | Yes | 108 | Tyler Anderson | 7.1% | +1312 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 7.0% | +1338 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | No | 92 | Martin Perez | 6.9% | +1348 |
| Reese McGuire | CHW | Yes | 108 | Noah Syndergaard | 6.8% | +1370 |
| Elvis Andrus | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 6.8% | +1376 |
| Chad Pinder | OAK | Yes | 103 | Jordan Montgomery | 6.8% | +1376 |
