MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/30/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | Graham Ashcraft | 10.0 | 5.16 | 41.2% | 26.2% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| CIN | Kyle Hendricks | 10.0 | 4.84 | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| CLE | Chris Archer | 8.5 | 4.65 | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| PHI | Ian Anderson | 8.5 | 4.63 | 31.9% | 18.6% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| SEA | Adrian Martinez | 7.5 | 4.42 | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| MIL | JT Brubaker | 8.5 | 4.39 | 27.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| PIT | Adrian Houser | 8.5 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| NYY | Luis Garcia | 8.0 | 4.10 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| LAD | Joe Musgrove | 7.5 | 3.97 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| HOU | Luis Severino | 8.0 | 3.90 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| ATL | Aaron Nola | 8.5 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| MIN | Shane Bieber | 8.5 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| SD | Mitch White | 7.5 | 3.53 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| OAK | Logan Gilbert | 7.5 | 3.08 | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| TB | Yusei Kikuchi | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TOR | Jeffrey Springs | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | ATL | 7.2 | 92.8% | 84.4% | 72.3% | 57.8% | 43.0% | 29.6% | 18.9% |
| Shane Bieber | MIN | 7.1 | 92.2% | 83.4% | 70.9% | 56.2% | 41.3% | 28.1% | 17.8% |
| Luis Severino | HOU | 6.6 | 89.7% | 79.2% | 65.1% | 49.5% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.5% |
| Joe Musgrove | LAD | 6.3 | 87.4% | 75.4% | 60.3% | 44.3% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 10.7% |
| Logan Gilbert | OAK | 6.2 | 86.3% | 73.7% | 58.1% | 42.1% | 28.0% | 17.1% | 9.6% |
| Luis Garcia | NYY | 5.4 | 79.1% | 63.3% | 46.1% | 30.5% | 18.3% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
| Jeffrey Springs | TOR | 5.3 | 77.0% | 60.4% | 43.0% | 27.7% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Ian Anderson | PHI | 5.1 | 75.0% | 57.9% | 40.3% | 25.4% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| JT Brubaker | MIL | 4.6 | 67.1% | 48.3% | 31.1% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | TB | 4.6 | 66.9% | 48.1% | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CIN | 4.3 | 62.5% | 43.1% | 26.5% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Adrian Houser | PIT | 4.3 | 61.7% | 42.4% | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Mitch White | SD | 4.2 | 61.2% | 41.8% | 25.3% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Graham Ashcraft | CHC | 4.0 | 56.5% | 36.9% | 21.3% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Adrian Martinez | SEA | 3.8 | 51.6% | 32.2% | 17.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Chris Archer | CLE | 3.6 | 48.9% | 29.7% | 15.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | HR PF |
Opp Pitcher |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 26.9% | +270 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 25.4% | +295 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 24.8% | +305 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Chris Archer | 22.2% | +350 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 22.0% | +355 |
| George Springer | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 21.5% | +365 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 21.5% | +365 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 107 | Joe Musgrove | 21.3% | +370 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 110 | Ian Anderson | 21.2% | +370 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 20.7% | +385 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 20.1% | +395 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 19.4% | +415 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 19.2% | +420 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 18.8% | +430 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 102 | Luis Severino | 18.7% | +435 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 18.5% | +440 |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 18.2% | +450 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 18.1% | +450 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 17.9% | +455 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | No | 107 | Joe Musgrove | 17.8% | +460 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 106 | Aaron Nola | 17.4% | +475 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 17.4% | +475 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 17.3% | +480 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Chris Archer | 17.0% | +490 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 102 | Luis Severino | 16.9% | +495 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 99 | Adrian Martinez | 16.8% | +495 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | No | 103 | Graham Ashcraft | 16.7% | +500 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | Yes | 96 | Kyle Hendricks | 16.7% | +500 |
| Luke Voit | SD | No | 107 | Mitch White | 16.5% | +505 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 16.4% | +510 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 16.4% | +510 |
| Jorge Polanco | MIN | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 16.3% | +510 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 16.2% | +515 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 107 | Mitch White | 15.9% | +530 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 15.8% | +535 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | No | 94 | Yusei Kikuchi | 15.7% | +535 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 96 | Graham Ashcraft | 15.4% | +550 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 106 | Ian Anderson | 15.4% | +550 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 15.3% | +555 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 107 | Joe Musgrove | 15.2% | +560 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 14.9% | +570 |
| Donovan Solano | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 14.7% | +580 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | 103 | Graham Ashcraft | 14.7% | +580 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 103 | Graham Ashcraft | 14.7% | +580 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 14.7% | +580 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 14.6% | +585 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 14.6% | +585 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 14.6% | +585 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jeffrey Springs | 14.6% | +585 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 14.5% | +590 |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | Yes | 102 | Mitch White | 14.2% | +605 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 14.0% | +615 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 13.8% | +625 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Chris Archer | 13.6% | +635 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | 99 | Adrian Martinez | 13.6% | +635 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 96 | Logan Gilbert | 13.5% | +640 |
| Jake Lamb | LAD | Yes | 102 | Joe Musgrove | 13.5% | +640 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 13.4% | +645 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 13.4% | +650 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 13.1% | +660 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 12.9% | +675 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | No | 99 | Chris Archer | 12.9% | +675 |
| Rafael Ortega | CHC | Yes | 96 | Graham Ashcraft | 12.8% | +680 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 102 | Joe Musgrove | 12.8% | +685 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 102 | Joe Musgrove | 12.8% | +685 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 12.6% | +695 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 101 | Luis Garcia | 12.4% | +705 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 102 | Mitch White | 12.0% | +730 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 11.9% | +740 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | No | 107 | Mitch White | 11.5% | +765 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 96 | Adrian Martinez | 11.4% | +775 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 11.3% | +785 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 102 | Joe Musgrove | 11.3% | +785 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Yes | 102 | Mitch White | 11.3% | +785 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 11.2% | +795 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 11.0% | +805 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 10.6% | +840 |
| Dan Vogelbach | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 10.6% | +840 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 10.6% | +840 |
| Nomar Mazara | SD | Yes | 102 | Mitch White | 10.5% | +850 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 10.4% | +860 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 10.4% | +860 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 10.2% | +880 |
| Jake Meyers | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 10.2% | +880 |
| Wander Franco | TB | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 10.0% | +895 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 96 | Adrian Martinez | 10.0% | +900 |
| Alfonso Rivas | CHC | Yes | 96 | Graham Ashcraft | 10.0% | +900 |
| Hoy Park | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 9.9% | +910 |
| David Bote | CHC | No | 103 | Graham Ashcraft | 9.6% | +940 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 110 | Ian Anderson | 9.4% | +965 |
| Luke Maile | CLE | No | 99 | Chris Archer | 9.3% | +975 |
| Abraham Toro | SEA | Yes | 96 | Adrian Martinez | 9.2% | +985 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Yes | 96 | Adrian Martinez | 9.2% | +985 |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | Yes | 106 | Ian Anderson | 8.4% | +1085 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Trayce Thompson | LAD | No | 107 | Joe Musgrove | 8.3% | +1100 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | Yes | 102 | Luis Garcia | 8.1% | +1130 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 103 | Graham Ashcraft | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | No | 99 | Chris Archer | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Sheldon Neuse | OAK | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | Chris Archer | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Orlando Arcia | ATL | No | 110 | Aaron Nola | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Mickey Moniak | PHI | Yes | 106 | Ian Anderson | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 106 | Aaron Nola | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Aramis Garcia | CIN | No | 103 | Kyle Hendricks | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Chris Archer | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Tony Kemp | OAK | Yes | 96 | Logan Gilbert | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Bligh Madris | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 6.5% | +1435 |
| Stephen Piscotty | OAK | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 6.1% | +1530 |
| Sam Haggerty | SEA | Yes | 96 | Adrian Martinez | 6.1% | +1540 |
| Stephen Vogt | OAK | Yes | 96 | Logan Gilbert | 6.1% | +1540 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 5.8% | +1635 |
| Taylor Walls | TB | Yes | 101 | Yusei Kikuchi | 5.8% | +1635 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | No | 92 | Adrian Houser | 5.7% | +1645 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Yes | 103 | Chris Archer | 5.6% | +1675 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 102 | Mitch White | 5.6% | +1690 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | Yes | 102 | Joe Musgrove | 5.6% | +1690 |
| Elvis Andrus | OAK | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 5.3% | +1780 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 5.3% | +1780 |
| Nick Allen | OAK | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 5.3% | +1780 |
| Jason Heyward | CHC | Yes | 96 | Graham Ashcraft | 5.3% | +1795 |
| Adam Frazier | SEA | Yes | 96 | Adrian Martinez | 5.3% | +1795 |
| Josh VanMeter | PIT | Yes | 95 | Adrian Houser | 5.2% | +1815 |
