MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 7/11/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Jose Urena | 11.5 | 6.21 | 58.7% | 42.7% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| COL | Sean Manaea | 11.5 | 5.29 | 43.5% | 28.1% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| KC | Michael Pineda | 9.0 | 4.84 | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| KC | Alex Faedo | 9.0 | 4.76 | 34.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| TEX | Adrian Martinez | 8.5 | 4.75 | 34.0% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| CHW | Cal Quantrill | 9.0 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| CLE | Lance Lynn | 9.0 | 4.43 | 28.5% | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| DET | Daniel Lynch | 9.0 | 4.24 | 25.3% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| DET | Brad Keller | 9.0 | 4.16 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| SF | Merrill Kelly | 7.5 | 4.12 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| MIA | Mitch Keller | 7.5 | 4.10 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| PHI | Miles Mikolas | 7.5 | 3.82 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| BOS | Matt Wisler | 7.5 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| OAK | Spencer Howard | 8.5 | 3.75 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| TB | Brayan Bello | 7.5 | 3.72 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| ATL | Max Scherzer | 7.0 | 3.69 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| STL | Aaron Nola | 7.5 | 3.68 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| PIT | Trevor Rogers | 7.5 | 3.40 | 12.9% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| ARI | Alex Cobb | 7.5 | 3.38 | 12.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| NYM | Max Fried | 7.0 | 3.31 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | STL | 7.4 | 93.8% | 86.2% | 75.0% | 61.1% | 46.4% | 32.7% | 21.5% |
| Max Scherzer | ATL | 6.8 | 90.5% | 80.5% | 66.9% | 51.5% | 36.7% | 24.1% | 14.7% |
| Max Fried | NYM | 6.6 | 89.5% | 78.8% | 64.7% | 49.1% | 34.3% | 22.2% | 13.2% |
| Sean Manaea | COL | 6.3 | 87.3% | 75.2% | 60.0% | 44.0% | 29.7% | 18.4% | 10.5% |
| Alex Cobb | ARI | 5.1 | 75.0% | 57.9% | 40.3% | 25.4% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| Lance Lynn | CLE | 5.1 | 74.9% | 57.7% | 40.2% | 25.3% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Miles Mikolas | PHI | 5.0 | 73.9% | 56.5% | 38.9% | 24.2% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| Trevor Rogers | PIT | 5.0 | 73.6% | 56.1% | 38.6% | 23.9% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Merrill Kelly | SF | 4.9 | 71.5% | 53.5% | 35.9% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Brad Keller | DET | 4.6 | 67.3% | 48.5% | 31.3% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Cal Quantrill | CHW | 4.6 | 67.1% | 48.3% | 31.1% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Daniel Lynch | DET | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Mitch Keller | MIA | 4.5 | 64.9% | 45.8% | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Josh Fleming | BOS | 4.4 | 64.4% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Alex Faedo | KC | 3.8 | 52.2% | 32.8% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Adrian Martinez | TEX | 3.7 | 50.0% | 30.7% | 16.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Michael Pineda | KC | 3.4 | 45.0% | 26.3% | 13.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jose Urena | SD | 3.3 | 41.5% | 23.4% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Howard | OAK | 3.1 | 37.1% | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Brayan Bello | TB | 3.0 | 35.1% | 18.3% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matt Wisler | BOS | 1.5 | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | HR PF |
Opp Pitcher |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 91 | Miles Mikolas | 23.6% | +325 |
| Luke Voit | SD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 22.6% | +345 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | Yes | 108 | Sean Manaea | 22.5% | +345 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 21.7% | +360 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | No | 95 | Adrian Martinez | 21.1% | +375 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 97 | Max Scherzer | 20.9% | +380 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 20.9% | +380 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 20.6% | +385 |
| Brad Miller | TEX | Yes | 101 | Adrian Martinez | 20.3% | +395 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | No | 99 | Lance Lynn | 20.2% | +395 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 19.7% | +405 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 101 | Adrian Martinez | 19.7% | +405 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 100 | Max Scherzer | 19.6% | +410 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | 92 | Brayan Bello | 19.4% | +415 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Yes | 101 | Adrian Martinez | 19.1% | +420 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | No | 95 | Adrian Martinez | 19.0% | +425 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 18.6% | +440 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 97 | Miles Mikolas | 18.6% | +440 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | No | 94 | Brayan Bello | 18.3% | +445 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 87 | Merrill Kelly | 18.1% | +450 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | 97 | Max Scherzer | 17.7% | +465 |
| Mitch Garver | TEX | No | 95 | Adrian Martinez | 17.4% | +475 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | No | 92 | Josh Fleming | 17.4% | +475 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 17.4% | +475 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 101 | Spencer Howard | 17.4% | +475 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 92 | Brad Keller | 17.0% | +490 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 92 | Alex Faedo | 17.0% | +490 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | No | 95 | Spencer Howard | 16.8% | +495 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 97 | Max Scherzer | 16.5% | +505 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | Yes | 94 | Josh Fleming | 16.3% | +510 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | Yes | 94 | Josh Fleming | 16.3% | +510 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 16.3% | +510 |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | Yes | 92 | Mitch Keller | 16.1% | +520 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Yes | 101 | Adrian Martinez | 16.1% | +520 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | Yes | 101 | Adrian Martinez | 16.1% | +520 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 92 | Michael Pineda | 15.8% | +530 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | Yes | 108 | Sean Manaea | 15.4% | +550 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | Aaron Nola | 15.1% | +565 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 91 | Aaron Nola | 15.1% | +565 |
| Juan Yepez | STL | No | 91 | Aaron Nola | 15.1% | +565 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | Yes | 94 | Josh Fleming | 15.1% | +565 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | No | 92 | Trevor Rogers | 14.9% | +570 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 14.9% | +570 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 14.8% | +575 |
| Kris Bryant | COL | Yes | 108 | Sean Manaea | 14.7% | +580 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 14.3% | +600 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 14.2% | +600 |
| Brandon Belt | SF | Yes | 87 | Merrill Kelly | 14.2% | +600 |
| Diego Castillo | PIT | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 13.9% | +620 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 13.8% | +625 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 13.5% | +640 |
| Javier Baez | DET | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 13.5% | +640 |
| Vimael Machin | OAK | Yes | 101 | Spencer Howard | 13.4% | +645 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 97 | Max Scherzer | 13.3% | +650 |
| Michael Chavis | PIT | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 13.3% | +655 |
| Darick Hall | PHI | Yes | 97 | Miles Mikolas | 12.9% | +675 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 12.9% | +675 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 12.7% | +685 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 12.7% | +685 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | 90 | Mitch Keller | 12.5% | +700 |
| David Peralta | ARI | Yes | 87 | Alex Cobb | 12.4% | +705 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | 92 | Brayan Bello | 12.4% | +710 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 90 | Mitch Keller | 11.9% | +740 |
| Eddie Rosario | ATL | Yes | 100 | Max Scherzer | 11.8% | +745 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 87 | Alex Cobb | 11.8% | +750 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 87 | Alex Cobb | 11.8% | +750 |
| Robert Refsnyder | BOS | Yes | 94 | Josh Fleming | 11.6% | +760 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 97 | Aaron Nola | 11.5% | +765 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Lance Lynn | 11.5% | +770 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 92 | Alex Faedo | 11.5% | +775 |
| Nolan Jones | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 11.4% | +780 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 90 | Merrill Kelly | 11.2% | +790 |
| J.D. Davis | NYM | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 11.2% | +790 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 95 | Spencer Howard | 11.1% | +800 |
| Nicky Lopez | KC | Yes | 92 | Michael Pineda | 11.0% | +810 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 94 | Brayan Bello | 11.0% | +810 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | No | 92 | Josh Fleming | 10.6% | +845 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | Merrill Kelly | 10.5% | +855 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 87 | Merrill Kelly | 10.5% | +855 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 87 | Alex Cobb | 10.5% | +855 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 100 | Max Scherzer | 10.3% | +865 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | Yes | 97 | Aaron Nola | 10.1% | +895 |
| Jose Azocar | SD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 10.0% | +895 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 10.0% | +900 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | No | 92 | Trevor Rogers | 10.0% | +900 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 97 | Max Scherzer | 9.9% | +915 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | Yes | 108 | Sean Manaea | 9.8% | +920 |
| Connor Joe | COL | Yes | 108 | Sean Manaea | 9.8% | +920 |
| Nicky Lopez | KC | Yes | 92 | Alex Faedo | 9.6% | +940 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 92 | Alex Faedo | 9.6% | +940 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | No | 109 | Sean Manaea | 9.5% | +950 |
| Bobby Dalbec | BOS | Yes | 94 | Josh Fleming | 9.4% | +960 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | No | 92 | Brad Keller | 9.4% | +965 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 91 | Miles Mikolas | 9.3% | +975 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 9.3% | +975 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 9.3% | +975 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | No | 108 | Jose Urena | 9.2% | +985 |
| Andrew Benintendi | KC | Yes | 92 | Michael Pineda | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | No | 92 | Alex Faedo | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | No | 92 | Michael Pineda | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 109 | Jose Urena | 8.6% | +1060 |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | Yes | 97 | Miles Mikolas | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Yes | 97 | Miles Mikolas | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 90 | Merrill Kelly | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 8.5% | +1080 |
| Taylor Walls | TB | Yes | 92 | Brayan Bello | 8.1% | +1125 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | Yes | 108 | Sean Manaea | 8.0% | +1150 |
| Whit Merrifield | KC | No | 92 | Michael Pineda | 8.0% | +1155 |
| Edward Olivares | KC | No | 92 | Michael Pineda | 8.0% | +1155 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 91 | Miles Mikolas | 7.9% | +1165 |
| David Villar | SF | No | 90 | Merrill Kelly | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Yes | 97 | Aaron Nola | 7.8% | +1185 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 7.5% | +1225 |
| Elvis Andrus | OAK | No | 95 | Spencer Howard | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Stephen Piscotty | OAK | No | 95 | Spencer Howard | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | No | 92 | Brad Keller | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | KC | No | 92 | Michael Pineda | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | No | 90 | Mitch Keller | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | No | 90 | Mitch Keller | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | Yes | 94 | Josh Fleming | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 97 | Aaron Nola | 7.0% | +1335 |
| Robbie Grossman | DET | Yes | 92 | Daniel Lynch | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Yoshitomo Tsutsugo | PIT | No | 92 | Trevor Rogers | 6.9% | +1350 |
| Andrew Benintendi | KC | Yes | 92 | Alex Faedo | 6.6% | +1405 |
| Brett Phillips | TB | Yes | 92 | Brayan Bello | 6.6% | +1405 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Yes | 92 | Brad Keller | 6.6% | +1405 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Yes | 92 | Michael Pineda | 6.6% | +1405 |
| Buddy Kennedy | ARI | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 6.4% | +1470 |
