MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/14/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Over 7.5 (-108) - 2 Stars
Rays Moneyline (-134) - 1 Star
The model today is eying some overs as the best bets on the day.
That'll start, for us, in this matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. The total is 7.5.
Boston will be starting Kutter Crawford (who is 2-2 on the year with a 3.69 SIERA and a 4.16 xFIP); the Rays will start Drew Rasmussen (5-3 with a 3.97 SIERA but a 3.64 xFIP).
While Crawford holds a strong strikeout rate (28.8%), it's a bit inflated, given his 26.2% called-strike-plus-whiff rate, and he has a double-digit walk rate (11.4%), as well.
Rasmussen, on the other hand, has a low strikeout rate of 20.7% and gives up hard contact at a 33.0% clip.
In total, these aren't fully pristine hitting matchups relative to the others on the day. However, the total is well within reach for two active hitting rosters with positive wRC+ marks (Boston's at 111, and Tampa is at 105).
Our model also likes the Rays to win outright with a 58.7% probability, putting value on their moneyline.
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
Over 7.5 (-104) - 3 Stars
Mets -1.5 (+128) - 1 Star
How about another over? That's what we're getting -- also at 7.5 runs -- in the matchup between the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs.
This time, though, our model is rating it as a three-star play (suggesting a three-unit wager -- whatever that means for your personal bankroll).
Our model is anticipating 9.45 runs to be scored here, on average, and the over is rating out as 65.8% likely to hit as a result. That's good for a 25.7% expected return on investment.
The Cubs will start Keegan Thompson (7-3 with a 4.06 xFIP), and Carlos Carrasco (9-4, 3.55 xFIP) will start for the Mets.
Once again, though, both offenses are quite solid (a 111 wRC+ for the Cubs' active roster and a 110 mark for the Mets).
The model also prefers the Mets' runline at +128 odds for a one-star wager opportunity.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
Over 6.0 (-118) - 4 Stars
Giants Moneyline (-102) - 1 Star
Giants +1.5 (-200) - 1 Star
A stellar pitching matchup is on tap for this game between the Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes [7-4, 2.84 xFIP]) and San Francisco Giants (Carlos Rodon [8-5, 3.07 xFIP]).
Despite that, our model again likes the over, which is set all the way down at 6.0 runs. Since 2010, games with a total of 6.0 have averaged 6.78 runs, and the over is 99-86-17 outright, based on results in numberFire's database.
Moreover, the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database went over 19 times, good for a 76.0% rate.
Beyond the total, our model is leaning on the Giants to win outright (-102) with a 54.9% probability. In what still should be a low-scoring game, the Giants +1.5 (-200) is another one-star play. They're 66.7% likely to cover that runline, per our algorithm.
