MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 7/28/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADJose
Urena
12.06.9669.4%54.4%39.5%26.6%16.5%
TORTyler
Alexander
9.55.5648.1%32.3%19.8%11.1%5.7%
COLTyler
Anderson
12.05.0439.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
CINDaniel
Castano
9.55.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
NYYBrady
Singer
8.55.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
CLEKutter
Crawford
9.04.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
BALRyan
Yarbrough
9.04.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
PHIZach
Thompson
8.04.5530.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
MIAGraham
Ashcraft
9.54.4929.5%16.8%8.6%4.0%1.7%
TBJordan
Lyles
9.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
BOSTriston
McKenzie
9.04.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
LAASpencer
Howard
7.54.3727.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
HOULogan
Gilbert
8.04.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
SFJustin
Steele
7.54.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
DETYusei
Kikuchi
9.53.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
SEAJose
Urquidy
8.03.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
KCJameson
Taillon
8.53.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
CHCAlex
Wood
7.53.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
PITZack
Wheeler
8.03.4513.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
TEXShohei
Ohtani
7.53.139.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shohei
Ohtani
TEX8.095.8%90.0%80.9%68.7%54.7%40.7%28.3%
Zack
Wheeler
PIT6.387.4%75.3%60.1%44.2%29.8%18.5%10.6%
Triston
McKenzie
BOS5.882.7%68.3%51.7%35.7%22.5%13.0%6.9%
Alex
Wood
CHC5.377.5%61.0%43.7%28.3%16.7%8.9%4.4%
Brady
Singer
NYY5.174.6%57.3%39.8%25.0%14.2%7.3%3.5%
Jose
Urquidy
SEA5.073.8%56.3%38.8%24.1%13.5%6.9%3.3%
Jameson
Taillon
KC5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
Tyler
Anderson
COL4.972.4%54.5%37.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
Yusei
Kikuchi
DET4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Logan
Gilbert
HOU4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Kutter
Crawford
CLE4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
Jordan
Lyles
TB4.769.2%50.7%33.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
Graham
Ashcraft
MIA4.565.6%46.6%29.5%16.8%8.6%4.0%1.7%
Justin
Steele
SF4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Ryan
Yarbrough
BAL3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Jose
Urena
LAD3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Zach
Thompson
PHI3.342.8%24.5%12.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
Daniel
Castano
CIN3.240.2%22.3%10.8%4.6%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Spencer
Howard
LAA3.137.7%20.4%9.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Tyler
Alexander
TOR2.626.8%12.5%5.1%1.8%0.6%0.2%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo101Jose
Urquidy
28.0%+255
Mookie
Betts
LADNo108Jose
Urena
26.8%+275
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes95Zach
Thompson
25.9%+285
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Logan
Gilbert
24.0%+315
Trea
Turner
LADNo108Jose
Urena
23.6%+325
Matt
Chapman
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
23.6%+325
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo101Jose
Urquidy
23.5%+325
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Spencer
Howard
23.4%+325
Anthony
Santander
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
23.1%+335
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Brady
Singer
23.1%+335
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Brady
Singer
22.8%+340
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Spencer
Howard
22.4%+345
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo103Shohei
Ohtani
22.3%+350
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes93Kutter
Crawford
22.1%+355
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Spencer
Howard
21.3%+370
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Daniel
Castano
21.2%+370
Matt
Carpenter
NYYYes109Brady
Singer
20.9%+380
Ramon
Urias
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
20.1%+400
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
20.1%+400
Danny
Jansen
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
19.8%+405
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes109Jose
Urena
19.7%+410
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
19.5%+410
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Logan
Gilbert
19.4%+415
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes102Jose
Urquidy
19.3%+420
Brandon
Drury
CINYes111Daniel
Castano
19.3%+420
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Logan
Gilbert
18.7%+435
Javier
Baez
DETYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
18.6%+440
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes110Jordan
Lyles
18.5%+440
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes93Kutter
Crawford
18.5%+440
Jake
Lamb
LADYes109Jose
Urena
18.4%+445
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes109Jose
Urena
18.4%+445
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Triston
McKenzie
18.0%+455
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Logan
Gilbert
17.6%+465
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo92Zach
Thompson
17.5%+470
George
Springer
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
17.3%+480
Tommy
Pham
CINYes111Daniel
Castano
17.2%+480
Darick
Hall
PHIYes95Zach
Thompson
17.1%+485
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Kutter
Crawford
16.8%+495
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Brady
Singer
16.7%+500
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
16.7%+500
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo112Jordan
Lyles
16.5%+505
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Justin
Steele
16.4%+510
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes102Jose
Urquidy
16.2%+515
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
16.0%+525
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Zack
Wheeler
15.9%+530
Austin
Hays
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
15.9%+530
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
15.9%+530
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
15.8%+535
Max
Muncy
LADYes109Jose
Urena
15.7%+535
Kris
Bryant
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
15.4%+550
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
15.4%+550
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
15.2%+560
Trey
Mancini
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
15.1%+560
MJ
Melendez
KCYes109Jameson
Taillon
15.0%+565
Corey
Seager
TEXYes108Shohei
Ohtani
14.9%+570
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes108Shohei
Ohtani
14.9%+570
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Spencer
Howard
14.7%+580
Darin
Ruf
SFYes90Justin
Steele
14.5%+590
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes93Kutter
Crawford
14.4%+595
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Spencer
Howard
14.0%+610
Michael
Stefanic
LAANo103Spencer
Howard
14.0%+610
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes113Graham
Ashcraft
13.9%+620
Ty
France
SEANo101Jose
Urquidy
13.8%+625
Brandon
Belt
SFNo87Justin
Steele
13.8%+625
Brett
Phillips
TBYes110Jordan
Lyles
13.6%+635
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo92Zach
Thompson
13.4%+645
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Brady
Singer
13.3%+650
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Daniel
Castano
13.3%+650
Austin
Slater
SFYes90Justin
Steele
13.3%+655
Frank
Schwindel
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
13.3%+655
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
13.1%+660
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes93Kutter
Crawford
13.1%+660
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Logan
Gilbert
13.1%+660
Kyle
Lewis
SEANo101Jose
Urquidy
13.1%+660
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
13.1%+660
Rougned
Odor
BALNo110Ryan
Yarbrough
13.0%+670
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes110Jordan
Lyles
12.8%+680
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
12.7%+685
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Brady
Singer
12.6%+690
Joey
Bart
SFYes90Justin
Steele
12.6%+695
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
12.4%+705
Bo
Bichette
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
12.4%+705
Santiago
Espinal
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
12.4%+705
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo99Triston
McKenzie
12.2%+720
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes102Jose
Urquidy
12.0%+730
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo111Graham
Ashcraft
11.9%+740
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
11.9%+740
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo103Jameson
Taillon
11.9%+740
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes112Ryan
Yarbrough
11.9%+745
Will
Smith
LADNo108Jose
Urena
11.6%+760
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Tyler
Anderson
11.6%+765
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
11.5%+770
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo112Jordan
Lyles
11.2%+795
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo112Jordan
Lyles
11.2%+795
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes108Shohei
Ohtani
11.1%+805
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Logan
Gilbert
11.0%+810
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Daniel
Castano
10.9%+815
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes113Graham
Ashcraft
10.7%+835
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes95Zach
Thompson
10.6%+840
Luke
Raley
TBYes110Jordan
Lyles
10.4%+860
Michael
Taylor
KCNo103Jameson
Taillon
10.4%+860
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Spencer
Howard
10.3%+875
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Logan
Gilbert
10.2%+880
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo92Zach
Thompson
10.1%+890
Justin
Turner
LADNo108Jose
Urena
10.0%+895
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Triston
McKenzie
10.0%+895
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Triston
McKenzie
10.0%+895
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111Daniel
Castano
10.0%+895
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo103Shohei
Ohtani
9.6%+940
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Brady
Singer
9.6%+940
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes109Jameson
Taillon
9.5%+955
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
9.2%+985
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Zack
Wheeler
9.1%+995
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Triston
McKenzie
9.0%+1015
Connor
Joe
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
8.9%+1025
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo103Jameson
Taillon
8.8%+1030
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo103Shohei
Ohtani
8.8%+1030
Josh
Lowe
TBYes110Jordan
Lyles
8.7%+1050
Gavin
Lux
LADYes109Jose
Urena
8.6%+1060
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes101Tyler
Alexander
8.4%+1095
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes90Justin
Steele
8.3%+1105
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
8.3%+1105
Yermin
Mercedes
SFYes90Justin
Steele
8.3%+1105
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
8.3%+1105
Mike
Papierski
CINYes111Daniel
Castano
8.2%+1120
Taylor
Walls
TBYes110Jordan
Lyles
7.8%+1180
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Kutter
Crawford
7.7%+1190
Jacob
Stallings
MIANo111Graham
Ashcraft
7.7%+1195
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes108Shohei
Ohtani
7.7%+1200
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Spencer
Howard
7.7%+1200
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
7.5%+1230
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo92Zack
Wheeler
7.2%+1280
Matt
Vierling
PHINo92Zach
Thompson
7.2%+1280
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
7.1%+1310
Harold
Castro
DETNo94Yusei
Kikuchi
7.0%+1320
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes109Brady
Singer
6.9%+1355
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo111Graham
Ashcraft
6.8%+1365
David
Bote
CHCYes90Alex
Wood
6.8%+1375
David
Villar
SFYes90Justin
Steele
6.8%+1375
Jackie
Bradley
BOSYes93Triston
McKenzie
6.7%+1390
Kevin
Newman
PITNo92Zack
Wheeler
6.5%+1440
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes102Jose
Urquidy
6.5%+1450
Isiah
Kiner-Falefa
NYYNo103Brady
Singer
6.4%+1470
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Logan
Gilbert
6.3%+1500