MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/1/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Over 7.5 (-120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Among main-slate starters tonight, Spenser Watkins holds the second-worst SIERA (5.11) on the board, and his low-strikeout ways (he holds a 13.8% strikeout rate through 253 batters faced), could boost the Texas Rangers' bats tonight.
Texas' active roster holds a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they're 11th in strikeout rate (22.4%). They should be able to generate more contact today against Watkins than against most righties.
Yes, on the flip side, we have Jon Gray, a righty who holds a 3.46 SIERA and a 27.1% strikeout rate.
In addition, the temperature is up in Texas (99 degrees). Since 2018, when temperatures are above 90 degrees, we see an uptick in hard-hit rate to 35.2% from 34.1% out of the sample. Slugging percentage also climbs to .421 from .414.
Any edge helps, and our model is quite into the over here.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Over 7.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Here's another over recommendation at 7.5 in Texas.
It's not as hot (90 degrees) in Houston -- and it's worth noting that the humidity is higher than we get in the Rangers game (64%) -- but the winds are blowing out to left-center at 11 miles per hour.
Now, both pitchers do have SIERAs below 3.60 (it's 3.43 for Nathan Eovaldi and 3.57 for Luis Garcia). However, the Houston Astros are fifth in active-roster wRC+ of 119 against right-handed pitching. The Boston Red Sox are a viable 19th (95 wRC+).
The game environment overall does lend itself to runs, and our model thinks this game is 65.2% likely to go over 7.5 runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (+120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The nightcap takes place out in San Francisco tonight when the 51-51 Giants will be hosting the 68-33 Los Angeles Dodgers.
Our model is siding with the Giants at home.
The Dodgers are the top team by wRC+ (124) against right-handed pitching, so San Francisco will need a good outing from Logan Webb, who holds a 3.58 SIERA and stifles hard contact (a 27.1% hard-hit rate).
On the opposite end, Andrew Heaney will build on a 19.1-inning sample against a team with a 117 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Heaney's small-sample peripherals are quite stellar (a 2.87 SIERA and a 2.40 expected ERA). That said, he's holding a 34.6% strikeout rate in this sample -- which would be a 5.7-point increase from a previous career-best, so it's probably a matter of when and not if.
