3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/1/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+250)/Starling Marte To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The New York Mets have a juicy 5.09 implied run total tonight, and plenty of player props worth looking at.
An elite matchup versus Patrick Corbin puts several of the Mets' hitters in an excellent spot for some offense. We have to start off with Pete Alonso, who comes in with a 141 wRC+, a .362 wOBA, a .244 ISO, a 42.3% fly-ball rate, and a 33.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Next up is Starling Marte, who owns a 168 wRC+, a .403 wOBA, a .217 ISO, a 31.6% fly-ball rate, and a 20.0% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers.
We are looking to the Mets' righties since Corbin is allowing a .521 SLG, a 4.10 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, a 33.7% fly-ball rate, and a 38.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Corbin has been a consistent target of ours since he allows so much hard contact, and there is no reason to stop now.
Of course, we should look to add Alonso To Record an RBI (-110) and Marte To Record an RBI (+115), as well.
Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Taking an under isn't for everyone, but it's the spot to look for Logan Webb tonight.
Webb is a good pitcher, a really good pitcher. That much has to be said about him as he sports a 3.36 xFIP, allowing 0.62 HR/9, and a 5.8% barrel rate. Webb truly is a top-notch pitcher. However, he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters. He is rocking a 20.6% strikeout rate this season, which is lower than the league average (22.3%). He's a classic ground-ball and medium-contact pitcher who doesn't always rack up the strikeouts.
His matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers isn't a good one for punchouts. This season, the Dodgers have a 21.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 23rd-highest in the league. They are one of the best offenses in baseball and are very disciplined at the plate.
Combine all of this together, and it points to the under for Webb tonight.
Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+110)
A plus-money RBI prop is always a great spot to look.
Not only is it plus money, but it's for one of the best hitters in the entire league, Yordan Alvarez.
It amazes me that a simple RBI prop for one of the elite hitters is at plus money but that's where we're looking tonight. Alvarez is boasting a 224 wRC+, a .482 wOBA, a .405 ISO, a 40.3% fly-ball rate, and a 44.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
He will be taking on Nathan Eovaldi, who is struggling this year, allowing a .449 SLG, 1.97 HR/9, a 47.6% fly-ball rate, and a 41.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. This is why we see the Houston Astros rocking a 4.20 implied total, a mark they could soar over.
Looking to Alvarez 2+ RBI (+380) is on the table, too.
