3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/11/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kyle Schwarber To Hit a Home Run (+290)/Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Philadelphia Phillies are hot right now and will look to keep that rolling today with a 4.43 implied run total.
The Phillies will be taking on Edward Cabrera, a pitcher that shows a bit of potential but can struggle with home runs. Cabrera only has 20.2 innings pitched this season, so we'll look at his career stats dating back to last season, when he made his MLB debut.
Through this time, Cabrera has allowed 1.71 HR/9 to lefties along with a 4.70 xFIP, a .393 SLG, a 14.0% walk rate, and a 23.8% HR/FB ratio. Versus righties, he has allowed 1.31 HR/9, a 4.85 xFIP, a .405 SLG, a 16.2% walk rate, and a 16.7% HR/FB ratio.
That leads us to the power of Kyle Schwarber, who comes in with a 137 wRC+, a .370 wOBA, a .335 ISO, a 52.9% fly-ball rate, and a 38.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Rhys Hoskins is sporting a 115 wRC+, a .337 wOBA, a .223 ISO, a 38.4% fly-ball rate, and a 32.4% hard-contact rate versus righties this season.
It's a great matchup for both of them, so I'm adding Schwarber To Record an RBI (+150) and Hoskins To Record an RBI (+135).
Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+128)
For a strikeout prop, let's look to Merrill Kelly today.
Kelly is taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that presents a very favorable matchup for any pitcher. This season, the Pirates are striking out 25.0% of the time versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-highest in the league.
Kelly comes in with a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 9.8% swinging-strike rate, which are rather modest numbers in the grand scheme of things. However, over his last six starts, Kelly is boosting those clips a bit. He has posted at least an 11.8% swinging-strike rate in four of those six starts, including one at 15.5% and another at 16.5%.
Over those same six starts, he has posted a single-game strikeout rate at 25.0% or higher three times, including one up at 32.0%. This has led to Kelly racking up seven and eight strikeouts in two of his recent starts.
So, Kelly's numbers for the overall season are a bit modest, but he is surging right now and has a very favorable matchup in front of him. Add all of this up, and it has me looking to add Kelly 7+ Strikeouts (+265) since he has shown this type of potential of late.
Paul DeJong To Record an RBI (+105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have a slate-high 6.05 implied run total and are still at Coors Field.
The offense has been out in full force for the Cardinals in recent games, and they will look to keep that rolling today versus German Marquez. This year, Marquez is allowing a .348 wOBA, a .507 SLG, 1.80 HR/9, and a 33.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. That puts opposing hitters in a great spot, especially when they're at the best park for offense in the league.
Paul DeJong To Record an RBI is at plus money. That's the short answer for all of this. He's at Coors Field and on a team with the highest implied team total with a plus-money prop. The longer answer would be that since returning from his injury, DeJong is carrying a 202 wRC+, a .459 wOBA, a .519 ISO, a 57.9% hard-contact rate, and a 52.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
It's very straightforward. We have a hot hitter in a great game environment against a meh pitcher, which is why I'm going to DeJong 2+ RBI (+380), as well.
