MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 8/11/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | German Marquez | 11.5 | 5.86 | 53.2% | 37.1% | 23.7% | 13.9% | 7.5% | ||
| COL | Dakota Hudson | 11.5 | 5.64 | 49.5% | 33.6% | 20.8% | 11.8% | 6.1% | ||
| BOS | Dean Kremer | 10.0 | 5.27 | 43.1% | 27.8% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 4.3% | ||
| HOU | Cole Ragans | 8.0 | 4.95 | 37.5% | 23.1% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 3.0% | ||
| BAL | Josh Winckowski | 10.0 | 4.73 | 33.7% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | ||
| CLE | Garrett Hill | 8.5 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% | ||
| CIN | Drew Smyly | 9.0 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | ||
| CHW | Zack Greinke | 8.0 | 4.53 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% | ||
| ARI | JT Brubaker | 8.0 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | ||
| CHC | Nick Lodolo | 9.0 | 4.43 | 28.5% | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | ||
| PHI | Edward Cabrera | 8.0 | 4.43 | 28.5% | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | ||
| DET | Zach Plesac | 8.5 | 3.79 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | ||
| MIA | Kyle Gibson | 8.0 | 3.57 | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | ||
| PIT | Merrill Kelly | 8.0 | 3.50 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | ||
| KC | Dylan Cease | 8.0 | 3.47 | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | ||
| TEX | Framber Valdez | 8.0 | 3.05 | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | KC | 7.2 | 92.8% | 84.4% | 72.3% | 57.8% | 43.0% | 29.6% | 18.9% |
| Framber Valdez | TEX | 5.9 | 84.2% | 70.4% | 54.1% | 38.1% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
| Merrill Kelly | PIT | 5.4 | 78.4% | 62.3% | 45.0% | 29.5% | 17.6% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Nick Lodolo | CHC | 5.3 | 77.6% | 61.2% | 43.8% | 28.4% | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Edward Cabrera | PHI | 5.2 | 76.1% | 59.2% | 41.7% | 26.6% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIA | 5.0 | 74.1% | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.4% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| German Marquez | STL | 4.9 | 72.1% | 54.2% | 36.6% | 22.3% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| JT Brubaker | ARI | 4.7 | 69.5% | 51.1% | 33.7% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Dean Kremer | BOS | 4.1 | 59.3% | 39.8% | 23.7% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Zach Plesac | DET | 4.1 | 58.0% | 38.5% | 22.6% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Zack Greinke | CHW | 3.8 | 52.9% | 33.4% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Josh Winckowski | BAL | 3.7 | 51.4% | 32.1% | 17.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Garrett Hill | CLE | 3.7 | 50.8% | 31.5% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Dakota Hudson | COL | 3.7 | 50.4% | 31.1% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Drew Smyly | CIN | 3.6 | 48.9% | 29.7% | 15.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Cole Ragans | HOU | 3.6 | 47.8% | 28.8% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | No | 102 | Cole Ragans | 24.9% | +300 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 24.0% | +315 |
| Darick Hall | PHI | Yes | 106 | Edward Cabrera | 22.6% | +340 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | Yes | 111 | Drew Smyly | 22.4% | +345 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 110 | Edward Cabrera | 22.3% | +350 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 108 | German Marquez | 22.0% | +355 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 22.0% | +355 |
| Paul DeJong | STL | No | 108 | German Marquez | 21.5% | +365 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 21.2% | +370 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 108 | German Marquez | 20.9% | +380 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 94 | Garrett Hill | 20.8% | +380 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 94 | Garrett Hill | 20.3% | +395 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 93 | Dean Kremer | 20.1% | +395 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 20.1% | +395 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 109 | German Marquez | 19.7% | +410 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 19.3% | +420 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 19.3% | +420 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 19.1% | +425 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 18.5% | +440 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 93 | JT Brubaker | 18.2% | +450 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 18.0% | +455 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 18.0% | +455 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 17.9% | +455 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 17.9% | +455 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 17.9% | +455 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | 108 | Dakota Hudson | 17.3% | +480 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | 109 | Dakota Hudson | 17.1% | +485 |
| Donovan Solano | CIN | Yes | 111 | Drew Smyly | 16.5% | +505 |
| Nelson Velazquez | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 16.5% | +505 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 16.4% | +510 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 92 | Dylan Cease | 16.1% | +520 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 101 | Framber Valdez | 16.0% | +525 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 110 | Edward Cabrera | 15.5% | +545 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Dean Kremer | 15.5% | +545 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 15.5% | +545 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | No | 113 | Drew Smyly | 15.2% | +555 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 15.2% | +560 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 99 | Dean Kremer | 14.9% | +570 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 106 | Edward Cabrera | 14.7% | +580 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 92 | Dylan Cease | 14.6% | +585 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 92 | Dylan Cease | 14.6% | +585 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 99 | JT Brubaker | 14.5% | +590 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 14.5% | +590 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 14.0% | +615 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | 108 | Dakota Hudson | 13.9% | +620 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 99 | Zach Plesac | 13.6% | +635 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 13.4% | +645 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | No | 102 | Cole Ragans | 13.4% | +645 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | 110 | Kyle Gibson | 13.4% | +650 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 101 | Framber Valdez | 13.1% | +660 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | CIN | Yes | 111 | Drew Smyly | 12.6% | +695 |
| Aristides Aquino | CIN | Yes | 111 | Drew Smyly | 12.6% | +695 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 12.5% | +700 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 12.4% | +705 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 12.4% | +705 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 12.1% | +725 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Yes | 109 | German Marquez | 12.0% | +735 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 11.8% | +750 |
| Jose Barrero | CIN | Yes | 111 | Drew Smyly | 11.8% | +750 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 99 | JT Brubaker | 11.7% | +750 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Yes | 106 | Edward Cabrera | 11.7% | +755 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 101 | Framber Valdez | 11.6% | +760 |
| Jake Meyers | HOU | Yes | 101 | Cole Ragans | 11.6% | +760 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | No | 93 | JT Brubaker | 11.6% | +765 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 94 | Garrett Hill | 11.2% | +790 |
| Eric Hosmer | BOS | Yes | 93 | Dean Kremer | 11.1% | +800 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | Dean Kremer | 11.1% | +800 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | 108 | Dakota Hudson | 10.8% | +820 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Plesac | 10.5% | +850 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Plesac | 10.5% | +850 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 99 | JT Brubaker | 10.3% | +875 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 110 | Kyle Gibson | 10.2% | +880 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 10.1% | +890 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 106 | Kyle Gibson | 10.1% | +890 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | No | 99 | Garrett Hill | 10.0% | +895 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Yes | 101 | Framber Valdez | 10.0% | +895 |
| Nick Madrigal | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 10.0% | +895 |
| Harold Castro | DET | Yes | 94 | Zach Plesac | 9.8% | +920 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 9.7% | +930 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 9.4% | +965 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 110 | Edward Cabrera | 9.4% | +965 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Garrett Hill | 9.3% | +975 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Yes | 106 | Edward Cabrera | 9.3% | +980 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | Yes | 111 | Drew Smyly | 9.1% | +995 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | 109 | Dakota Hudson | 8.6% | +1060 |
| Christian Arroyo | BOS | No | 99 | Dean Kremer | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 92 | Zack Greinke | 8.1% | +1125 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Jake McCarthy | ARI | Yes | 99 | JT Brubaker | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Cal Mitchell | PIT | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Dean Kremer | 7.7% | +1190 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | No | 110 | Kyle Gibson | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Lewin Diaz | MIA | Yes | 106 | Kyle Gibson | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | No | 108 | German Marquez | 7.5% | +1230 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 92 | Dylan Cease | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | No | 92 | Zack Greinke | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Luke Maile | CLE | No | 99 | Garrett Hill | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | Garrett Hill | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Sam Hilliard | COL | Yes | 109 | Dakota Hudson | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | Yes | 109 | German Marquez | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | No | 110 | Edward Cabrera | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Nick Fortes | MIA | No | 110 | Kyle Gibson | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Elehuris Montero | COL | No | 108 | Dakota Hudson | 6.7% | +1400 |
| Brian Serven | COL | No | 108 | Dakota Hudson | 6.7% | +1400 |
| Kevin Newman | PIT | No | 93 | Merrill Kelly | 6.6% | +1425 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | Yes | 111 | Nick Lodolo | 6.3% | +1490 |
| Tucupita Marcano | PIT | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 6.3% | +1495 |
