MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 8/17/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
TORAustin
Voth
9.05.0038.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
CHCCory
Abbott
9.04.9237.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
TEXAdam
Oller
9.04.8736.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
PHINick
Lodolo
8.54.7233.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
LADEric
Lauer
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
CLEDaniel
Norris
8.04.6432.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
BOSRoansy
Contreras
8.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
MINDaniel
Lynch
8.04.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
STLGerman
Marquez
7.54.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
HOUMichael
Kopech
8.04.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
NYYCorey
Kluber
8.04.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
OAKCole
Ragans
9.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
SFZach
Davies
7.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
WSHDrew
Smyly
9.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
NYMJake
Odorizzi
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
BALRoss
Stripling
9.04.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
PITRich
Hill
8.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
MILTony
Gonsolin
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
SDPablo
Lopez
7.03.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
CINRanger
Suarez
8.53.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
CHWFramber
Valdez
8.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
TBDomingo
German
8.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
ATLMax
Scherzer
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
KCTyler
Mahle
8.03.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
DETCal
Quantrill
8.03.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
MIAMike
Clevinger
7.03.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
COLJordan
Montgomery
7.53.1910.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%
ARICarlos
Rodon
7.02.927.6%3.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
ATL7.393.4%85.5%73.9%59.8%45.0%31.5%20.4%
Carlos
Rodon
ARI7.192.5%83.9%71.7%57.1%42.2%28.9%18.4%
Tyler
Mahle
KC6.185.8%72.9%57.2%41.1%27.1%16.4%9.2%
Framber
Valdez
CHW6.185.7%72.8%57.0%41.0%27.0%16.3%9.1%
Eric
Lauer
LAD5.781.7%66.8%50.0%34.1%21.2%12.1%6.3%
Nick
Lodolo
PHI5.680.8%65.6%48.6%32.8%20.2%11.3%5.9%
Pablo
Lopez
SD5.478.4%62.3%45.0%29.5%17.6%9.6%4.8%
Tony
Gonsolin
MIL5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Michael
Kopech
HOU5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
Jordan
Montgomery
COL5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
George
Kirby
LAA5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
Corey
Kluber
NYY5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
German
Marquez
STL4.971.6%53.6%36.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
Mike
Clevinger
MIA4.870.9%52.7%35.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
Cal
Quantrill
DET4.870.3%52.0%34.6%20.6%11.1%5.5%2.5%
Ranger
Suarez
CIN4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Touki
Toussaint
SEA4.667.4%48.7%31.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
Ross
Stripling
BAL4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
Jake
Odorizzi
NYM4.565.8%46.8%29.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
Domingo
German
TB4.464.1%44.9%28.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Cory
Abbott
CHC4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Roansy
Contreras
BOS4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Daniel
Norris
CLE4.260.5%41.0%24.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
Daniel
Lynch
MIN4.260.3%40.8%24.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
Drew
Smyly
WSH3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
Rich
Hill
PIT3.750.2%30.9%16.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Austin
Voth
TOR3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
Adam
Oller
TEX3.648.1%29.0%15.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Zach
Davies
SF3.547.0%28.0%14.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
Cole
Ragans
OAK3.444.4%25.8%13.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes111Michael
Kopech
29.5%+240
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Corey
Kluber
28.6%+250
Mookie
Betts
LADYes103Eric
Lauer
27.9%+260
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes109Domingo
German
24.6%+305
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes95Roansy
Contreras
24.2%+315
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Adam
Oller
23.0%+335
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Tony
Gonsolin
22.9%+335
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Zach
Davies
22.8%+340
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Drew
Smyly
22.8%+340
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Adam
Oller
22.4%+345
Byron
Buxton
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
21.6%+365
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Austin
Voth
21.5%+365
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91German
Marquez
21.4%+370
Rougned
Odor
BALYes94Ross
Stripling
21.3%+370
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo106Cory
Abbott
21.2%+370
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo106Cory
Abbott
21.2%+370
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108George
Kirby
20.7%+385
Chris
Taylor
LADYes103Eric
Lauer
20.7%+385
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes111Nick
Lodolo
20.6%+385
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Austin
Voth
20.5%+390
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Austin
Voth
20.5%+390
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Adam
Oller
20.3%+395
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Austin
Voth
19.9%+400
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Drew
Smyly
19.9%+405
David
Peralta
TBYes109Domingo
German
19.7%+410
Trea
Turner
LADYes103Eric
Lauer
19.5%+415
C.J.
Cron
COLYes91Jordan
Montgomery
19.4%+415
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes111Nick
Lodolo
19.3%+420
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo106Cory
Abbott
18.9%+430
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo106Cory
Abbott
18.9%+430
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Zach
Davies
18.6%+435
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes111Nick
Lodolo
18.6%+435
Eric
Haase
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
18.5%+440
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Corey
Kluber
18.4%+445
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo106Michael
Kopech
18.3%+445
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes108Touki
Toussaint
18.3%+445
George
Springer
TORNo101Austin
Voth
18.2%+450
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes103Eric
Lauer
18.2%+450
Will
Smith
LADYes103Eric
Lauer
18.2%+450
Max
Muncy
LADNo101Eric
Lauer
18.2%+450
Seth
Brown
OAKNo101Cole
Ragans
18.2%+450
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo103Touki
Toussaint
17.9%+460
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91German
Marquez
17.9%+460
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes92Rich
Hill
17.9%+460
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes100Jake
Odorizzi
17.8%+460
Anthony
Santander
BALYes94Ross
Stripling
17.6%+470
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Adam
Oller
17.4%+475
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo103Touki
Toussaint
17.3%+480
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes109Domingo
German
17.1%+485
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Zach
Davies
17.1%+485
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Daniel
Norris
17.0%+485
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Adam
Oller
16.7%+500
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103George
Kirby
16.7%+500
Ty
France
SEANo103Touki
Toussaint
16.7%+500
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo103Domingo
German
16.7%+500
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo98Tyler
Mahle
16.6%+500
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo97Jake
Odorizzi
16.5%+505
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
16.5%+505
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes95Cole
Ragans
16.5%+505
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes95Cole
Ragans
16.5%+505
Ian
Happ
CHCYes104Cory
Abbott
16.5%+505
Nick
Pratto
KCYes99Tyler
Mahle
16.5%+505
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo106Michael
Kopech
16.4%+510
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo106Cory
Abbott
16.4%+510
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes109Domingo
German
16.4%+510
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes108Touki
Toussaint
16.3%+515
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Tony
Gonsolin
16.0%+525
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo103Domingo
German
16.0%+525
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Drew
Smyly
15.9%+530
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
15.9%+530
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Austin
Voth
15.8%+535
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo106Michael
Kopech
15.7%+535
Paul
DeJong
STLNo91German
Marquez
15.7%+540
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108George
Kirby
15.6%+540
Manny
Machado
SDNo90Pablo
Lopez
15.5%+545
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Corey
Kluber
15.4%+550
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Tony
Gonsolin
15.4%+550
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
15.3%+555
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo92Roansy
Contreras
15.2%+555
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWYes106Framber
Valdez
15.2%+560
Austin
Hays
BALNo101Ross
Stripling
15.1%+560
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo101Ross
Stripling
15.1%+560
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo97Jordan
Montgomery
15.1%+565
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo101Eric
Lauer
15.0%+565
Taylor
Walls
TBYes109Domingo
German
15.0%+565
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97German
Marquez
14.9%+570
Salvador
Perez
KCNo98Tyler
Mahle
14.8%+575
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes91Jordan
Montgomery
14.7%+580
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Ranger
Suarez
14.6%+585
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes99Tyler
Mahle
14.5%+590
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Drew
Smyly
14.4%+590
A.J.
Pollock
CHWYes106Framber
Valdez
14.4%+590
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Drew
Smyly
14.4%+590
Brandon
Drury
SDNo90Pablo
Lopez
14.4%+595
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes103Cal
Quantrill
14.3%+600
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Corey
Kluber
14.0%+610
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo103Touki
Toussaint
14.0%+610
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
14.0%+615
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Max
Scherzer
14.0%+615
MJ
Melendez
KCYes99Tyler
Mahle
13.8%+620
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo101Ross
Stripling
13.8%+625
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Zach
Davies
13.8%+625
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes111Michael
Kopech
13.7%+630
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Zach
Davies
13.6%+635
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97German
Marquez
13.6%+635
Michael
Chavis
PITYes92Rich
Hill
13.5%+640
Justin
Turner
LADYes103Eric
Lauer
13.4%+650
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes100Jake
Odorizzi
13.3%+655
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Max
Scherzer
13.3%+655
Christian
Walker
ARIYes90Carlos
Rodon
13.3%+655
Ramon
Urias
BALNo101Ross
Stripling
13.1%+660
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo106Michael
Kopech
12.9%+675
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes103Cal
Quantrill
12.9%+675
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo92Roansy
Contreras
12.8%+685
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes95Roansy
Contreras
12.7%+685
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes90Carlos
Rodon
12.6%+695
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes100Jake
Odorizzi
12.6%+695
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Mike
Clevinger
12.5%+700
Trent
Grisham
SDYes92Pablo
Lopez
12.4%+710
Josh
Naylor
CLENo103Daniel
Norris
12.3%+715
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
12.2%+720
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo92Roansy
Contreras
12.1%+725
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
12.1%+730
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes91Jordan
Montgomery
12.0%+730
Max
Stassi
LAANo103George
Kirby
11.9%+740
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Tony
Gonsolin
11.9%+740
Josh
Bell
SDYes92Pablo
Lopez
11.7%+755
Juan
Soto
SDYes92Pablo
Lopez
11.7%+755
Michael
Taylor
KCNo98Tyler
Mahle
11.4%+775
Harold
Castro
DETYes103Cal
Quantrill
11.4%+780
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
11.3%+785
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
11.3%+785
Starling
Marte
NYMNo97Jake
Odorizzi
11.3%+785
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Tony
Gonsolin
11.2%+795
Jo
Adell
LAANo103George
Kirby
11.2%+795
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo87Carlos
Rodon
11.2%+795
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Max
Scherzer
11.1%+800
Elvis
Andrus
OAKYes95Cole
Ragans
11.0%+805
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Mike
Clevinger
11.0%+810
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Mike
Clevinger
11.0%+810
Edmundo
Sosa
PHIYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.9%+815
Matt
Vierling
PHIYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.9%+815
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo106Michael
Kopech
10.7%+835
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes90Carlos
Rodon
10.5%+850
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes90Carlos
Rodon
10.5%+850
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Tony
Gonsolin
10.4%+860
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Corey
Kluber
10.4%+860
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Tony
Gonsolin
10.4%+860
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo95Rich
Hill
10.3%+875
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108George
Kirby
10.3%+875
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes108Touki
Toussaint
10.3%+875
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINYes111Ranger
Suarez
10.0%+895
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Ranger
Suarez
10.0%+895
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Ranger
Suarez
10.0%+895
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Zach
Davies
9.9%+910
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo106Cory
Abbott
9.9%+910
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes94Ross
Stripling
9.8%+920
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
9.8%+925
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo95Adam
Oller
9.7%+935
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92Mike
Clevinger
9.6%+940
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo92Roansy
Contreras
9.4%+965
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97German
Marquez
9.3%+975
Kevin
Newman
PITYes92Rich
Hill
9.2%+985
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes91Jordan
Montgomery
9.1%+995
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
9.1%+995
Brandon
Marsh
PHINo113Nick
Lodolo
9.1%+1000
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes90Carlos
Rodon
9.1%+1005
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes92Pablo
Lopez
8.9%+1025
Jose
Siri
TBNo103Domingo
German
8.8%+1030
Nick
Allen
OAKYes95Cole
Ragans
8.7%+1045
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Austin
Voth
8.7%+1050
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Zach
Davies
8.4%+1085
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Daniel
Norris
8.2%+1115
Jose
Barrero
CINYes111Ranger
Suarez
8.2%+1120
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Tony
Gonsolin
8.1%+1140
Jose
Abreu
CHWYes106Framber
Valdez
7.9%+1170
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWYes106Framber
Valdez
7.9%+1170
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo90Mike
Clevinger
7.8%+1180
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97German
Marquez
7.8%+1185
C.J.
Abrams
WSHNo104Drew
Smyly
7.7%+1195
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo103Daniel
Norris
7.7%+1205
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes94Ross
Stripling
7.5%+1225
Austin
Hedges
CLEYes99Daniel
Norris
7.4%+1255
Gilberto
Celestino
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
7.3%+1265
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo97Jordan
Montgomery
7.2%+1280
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Corey
Kluber
7.2%+1285
Ben
Gamel
PITNo95Rich
Hill
7.1%+1305
Michael
Massey
KCYes99Tyler
Mahle
7.1%+1310
Whit
Merrifield
TORNo101Austin
Voth
7.1%+1310
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes106Framber
Valdez
7.0%+1335
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes106Framber
Valdez
7.0%+1335
Victor
Robles
WSHYes106Drew
Smyly
7.0%+1335
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
7.0%+1340
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes95Roansy
Contreras
6.8%+1365
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo97Max
Scherzer
6.8%+1365
Bryson
Stott
PHINo113Nick
Lodolo
6.8%+1370