MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/25/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Rockies +1.5 (+140) - 1 Star
Rockies ML (+350) - 1 Star
Tonight could be a reminder that really, really weird things can happen in a single baseball game.
As the public lines up on Jacob deGrom and the Mets tonight, there's absolutely a range of outcomes that includes a Rockies win. Our model sees it happening 25.6% of the time compared to the 22.2% implied odds here.
Colorado will send Ryan Feltner to the mound. Feltner's 4.23 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is a much better indicator of the righty's talent than his 5.88 ERA since half of his games are at Coors Field. He's a capable arm that could keep this one close as deGrom (2.31 SIERA) is likely dazzling once again.
Feltner's issue has been the long ball (1.54 HR/9), but he's also been a bit unlucky with a 14.7% homer to flyball ratio. The league average is just 10.6%. One of baseball's best parks for pitchers in Queens could help.
The Mets' bullpen hasn't been great in August (4.03 FIP; ninth-highest in MLB), so there's absolutely a path the meme of New York spoiling deGrom starts once again comes to fruition.
Patience might be a virtue; this line will likely balloon towards the Mets throughout Thursday afternoon.
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
Over 8.5 (-110) - 1 Star
Tonight's showdown in Houston has an old-fashioned "Pros vs. Joes" feel.
With Luis Garcia and Chris Archer holding two solid ERAs on the mound, 59% of bets on Twins-Astros fall with under this lofty total. However, 85% of the handle is on the same side as numberFire's model -- the over.
Archer's 2022 run with Minnesota has been equal parts surprising and lucky. His 4.02 ERA is masking a 4.67 SIERA, and his 42.4% hard-hit rate allowed is a problem. The Astros (112 wRC+ this season versus righties) are a great candidate for regression to hit.
As for Garcia, he's struggled lately. The usual swing-and-miss stuff hasn't quite been there (19.2% strikeout rate), and he's got a 4.41 xFIP in August. He's failed to record a quality start in three straight.
The Twins are without Byron Buxton, but they have still managed a decent 99 wRC+ against righties this month. They're also still not whiffing a lot (18.5% strikeout rate), which will make things tougher on Garcia as well.
numberFire's model gives the over a 57.0% likelihood to hit against these standard 52.5% implied odds at -110. Hop in and fade the masses.
