MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 8/25/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
PHIJustin
Dunn
8.55.3444.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
TORKutter
Crawford
9.04.9437.4%22.9%12.7%6.4%3.0%
HOUChris
Archer
8.54.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
NYMRyan
Feltner
7.04.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
NYYJames
Kaprielian
7.54.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
CHWJordan
Lyles
8.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
BALLance
Lynn
8.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
BOSKevin
Gausman
9.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
TBPatrick
Sandoval
7.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
CLEMarco
Gonzales
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
MINLuis
Garcia
8.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
SEATriston
McKenzie
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
CINAaron
Nola
8.53.1610.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.2%
LAADrew
Rasmussen
7.03.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
OAKJameson
Taillon
7.53.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
COLJacob
deGrom
7.02.403.6%1.2%0.3%0.1%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Aaron
Nola
CIN7.995.3%89.1%79.5%66.8%52.6%38.7%26.5%
Jacob
deGrom
COL7.895.2%88.8%79.0%66.2%51.9%38.0%25.9%
Kevin
Gausman
BOS6.589.0%77.9%63.4%47.7%33.0%21.1%12.4%
Luis
Garcia
MIN5.782.1%67.4%50.7%34.7%21.7%12.4%6.5%
Triston
McKenzie
SEA5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
Lance
Lynn
BAL5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Patrick
Sandoval
TB5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Jameson
Taillon
OAK5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Drew
Rasmussen
LAA5.073.2%55.6%38.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
Marco
Gonzales
CLE4.869.8%51.5%34.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
Marcus
Stroman
STL4.769.0%50.5%33.2%19.5%10.4%5.0%2.2%
Jordan
Lyles
CHW4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
Kutter
Crawford
TOR4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
James
Kaprielian
NYY4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Dakota
Hudson
CHC3.853.1%33.6%18.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Chris
Archer
HOU3.751.4%32.1%17.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
Ryan
Feltner
NYM3.750.2%30.9%16.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Justin
Dunn
PHI3.342.8%24.5%12.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Justin
Dunn
27.2%+265
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
26.5%+275
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
26.2%+280
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Chris
Archer
25.4%+295
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo94James
Kaprielian
25.3%+295
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo94James
Kaprielian
24.9%+300
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Justin
Dunn
24.8%+305
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Marcus
Stroman
22.3%+350
George
Springer
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
22.2%+350
Matt
Chapman
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
22.2%+350
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Marcus
Stroman
21.3%+370
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Ryan
Feltner
21.1%+375
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes102Luis
Garcia
21.0%+375
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Marco
Gonzales
20.6%+385
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes92James
Kaprielian
20.5%+390
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo94James
Kaprielian
20.4%+390
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Lance
Lynn
20.3%+390
Bo
Bichette
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
20.2%+395
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
19.7%+405
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Lance
Lynn
19.7%+405
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Triston
McKenzie
19.6%+410
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Ryan
Feltner
19.4%+415
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
19.1%+425
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Triston
McKenzie
19.1%+425
Paul
DeJong
STLNo103Marcus
Stroman
18.5%+440
C.J.
Cron
COLNo98Jacob
deGrom
18.4%+445
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
18.2%+450
Carlos
Correa
MINNo101Luis
Garcia
17.6%+465
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Justin
Dunn
17.4%+475
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
17.3%+480
Mike
Trout
LAANo94Drew
Rasmussen
17.2%+480
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Lance
Lynn
17.2%+480
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
17.0%+485
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Justin
Dunn
16.9%+490
Ty
France
SEANo99Triston
McKenzie
16.8%+495
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
16.7%+500
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes96Marcus
Stroman
16.7%+500
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes96Marcus
Stroman
16.7%+500
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Ryan
Feltner
16.6%+500
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Kevin
Gausman
16.3%+515
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Triston
McKenzie
16.2%+520
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Triston
McKenzie
16.1%+525
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Lance
Lynn
15.8%+530
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
15.8%+535
Jake
Fraley
CINYes106Aaron
Nola
15.4%+550
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
15.1%+560
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Marco
Gonzales
15.0%+565
Luis
Robert
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
15.0%+565
Josh
Naylor
CLENo96Marco
Gonzales
14.9%+570
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Jameson
Taillon
14.9%+570
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Lance
Lynn
14.4%+595
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
14.3%+600
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
14.3%+600
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Jameson
Taillon
14.3%+600
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo94James
Kaprielian
14.3%+600
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Kevin
Gausman
14.2%+600
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
14.2%+600
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Chris
Archer
14.2%+605
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
13.8%+625
Taylor
Ward
LAANo94Drew
Rasmussen
13.6%+635
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Ryan
Feltner
13.4%+650
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Justin
Dunn
13.4%+650
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes94Patrick
Sandoval
13.1%+665
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes92Drew
Rasmussen
13.0%+670
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
12.8%+680
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Lance
Lynn
12.8%+680
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Lance
Lynn
12.8%+680
Nick
Maton
PHIYes106Justin
Dunn
12.4%+705
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
12.4%+705
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Justin
Dunn
11.8%+745
Jonathan
India
CINNo110Aaron
Nola
11.8%+745
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Kevin
Gausman
11.8%+745
Gio
Urshela
MINNo101Luis
Garcia
11.7%+755
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Triston
McKenzie
11.4%+775
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Triston
McKenzie
11.4%+775
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98Ryan
Feltner
11.4%+775
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes92Drew
Rasmussen
11.0%+810
Max
Stassi
LAANo94Drew
Rasmussen
11.0%+810
Jo
Adell
LAANo94Drew
Rasmussen
11.0%+810
Jose
Miranda
MINNo101Luis
Garcia
11.0%+810
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Kevin
Gausman
10.8%+830
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Kevin
Gausman
10.8%+830
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96Dakota
Hudson
10.7%+835
Elias
Diaz
COLNo98Jacob
deGrom
10.7%+835
Max
Kepler
MINYes102Luis
Garcia
10.5%+850
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo96Marco
Gonzales
10.4%+865
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
10.0%+895
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo98Jacob
deGrom
10.0%+905
Elehuris
Montero
COLNo98Jacob
deGrom
10.0%+905
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes95Jacob
deGrom
9.9%+910
Myles
Straw
CLEYes99Marco
Gonzales
9.9%+915
Nick
Madrigal
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
9.6%+940
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes92Drew
Rasmussen
9.6%+940
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
9.5%+950
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
9.5%+950
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Patrick
Sandoval
9.4%+960
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo110Aaron
Nola
9.4%+965
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Ryan
Feltner
9.1%+995
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes99Marco
Gonzales
9.1%+1005
Jackie
Bradley
TORYes93Kutter
Crawford
9.0%+1015
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo94James
Kaprielian
8.9%+1025
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo94Jameson
Taillon
8.9%+1025
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
8.8%+1030
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes110Jordan
Lyles
8.7%+1050
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Chris
Archer
8.7%+1050
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Dakota
Hudson
8.5%+1080
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes96Marcus
Stroman
8.5%+1080
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
8.0%+1145
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Dakota
Hudson
8.0%+1145
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Lance
Lynn
7.8%+1180
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo112Jordan
Lyles
7.8%+1185
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo99Kutter
Crawford
7.7%+1190
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo98Jacob
deGrom
7.7%+1205
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95Ryan
Feltner
7.6%+1210
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes106Aaron
Nola
7.6%+1220
Bradley
Zimmer
PHIYes106Justin
Dunn
7.6%+1220
Skye
Bolt
OAKYes92Jameson
Taillon
7.4%+1250
Luke
Maile
CLEYes99Marco
Gonzales
7.4%+1255
Nick
Gordon
MINYes102Luis
Garcia
7.3%+1270
Yadier
Molina
STLNo103Marcus
Stroman
7.2%+1285
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Patrick
Sandoval
7.0%+1320
Harold
Ramirez
TBYes94Patrick
Sandoval
7.0%+1320
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Kevin
Gausman
7.0%+1340
Tommy
Edman
STLYes96Marcus
Stroman
6.9%+1350
Jose
Iglesias
COLNo98Jacob
deGrom
6.9%+1350
Sam
Hilliard
COLYes95Jacob
deGrom
6.8%+1365
Brett
Baty
NYMYes95Ryan
Feltner
6.8%+1365
Andrew
Benintendi
NYYYes92James
Kaprielian
6.6%+1405
Owen
Miller
CLEYes99Marco
Gonzales
6.5%+1430