FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 8/27/22
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Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Pitchers
Luis Castillo ($10,800)
At his second highest salary point this season, Seattle's hard-throwing right-hander stands as Saturday's top ranked pitcher with a 36.6 FanDuel point projection against a Cleveland Guardians' lineup with a weak .288 weighted on-base average in their last 520 plate appearances.
Since joining the Mariners on July 30th, Castillo has been in exceptional form in his four starts with Seattle despite a new league change, accounting for a 3.06 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), an impressive 14.3% swinging strike rate, a 28.4% K-rate, and seven or more strikeouts in 75% of these outings.
With a 27.5% strikeout percentage and a 2.91 xFIP versus right-handed hitters in 59.1 innings this season, the 29-year old's 6.92 strikeout prediction will depend on how he fares versus four projected Guardians' batters with wOBA ranging from .233 to .296 and K-rates between 15.9% and 25.9%.
Yu Darvish ($10,600)
San Diego's ten-year veteran is numberFire's second rated starter with a 36.1 fantasy expectation versus a Kansas City Royals' team with a .308 wOBA and a 24.7% K-rate including seven projected hitters with strikeout percentages between 20.6% and 33.0% and contact rates from 65.8% to 76.8%.
Despite recording a bloated 4.10 Earned Run Average during his four starts in August, Darvish has vastly outperformed this misleading metric when examining his 2.86 xFIP, 12.2% swinging strike rate, and 3.02 Skill Interactive Earned Run Average through 26.1 innings.
Even at his second highest salary point this month, the 36-year old offers the most value among pitchers over 10k with a 3.41 rating and a high ceiling with today's fourth highest strikeout expectation at 6.44.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,400)
In his third encounter facing a Chicago Cubs' unit with a .320 wOBA, Woodruff rates as Saturday's third ranked hurler with a 35.2 FanDuel point expectation and a 3.38 value rating.
Through his last four starts this month, the 29-year old has somewhat struggled to a 4.33 xFIP mostly due to an opposing 10.1% barrel rate and his recent inability to keep the ball in the yard (17.6% home-run to fly-ball percentage).
Despite these recent power concerns, Woodruff's slate-high 7.02 strikeout prediction is hard to ignore against six projected Cubs' hitters with strikeout rates ranging from 25.0% to 35.1% and contact percentages between 62.5% and 72.8%.
David Peterson ($7,500)
After a 6.5% salary decrease, New York's 26-year old left-hander is numberFire's top value option with an eye-popping 4.33 rating and an overall 32.4 FanDuel point expectation.
With an outstanding 27.0% K-rate and a 3.46 xFIP through 83.2 innings, Peterson is an ideal option in all formats versus a Colorado Rockies' lineup with a vulnerable .298 wOBA, 25.1% strikeout percentage, and 69.7% contact rate in their last 307 plate appearances in this split.
Stacks
Riding high off their 13-run explosion on Friday night, the Padres will attempt to overpass their 5.2 run total against another Royals' left-hander in Daniel Lynch.
In his largest sample size as a Major League starter, the 25-year old has produced extremely average numbers through 98.1 innings, accounting for a 4.57 xFIP, a 2.17 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 8.4% opposing barrel rate.
With overall neutral splits against both sides of the plate (5.21 xFIP against LHH, 4.70 xFIP versus RHH), the top and middle of the Padres' order all rate well enough for stacking including Manny Machado (9.5% barrel rate, .441 expected slugging), Brandon Drury (10.4% barrel percentage, .412 expected slugging), Josh Bell (.359 expected wOBA, .445 expected slugging), Juan Soto (12.7% barrel rate, .527 expected slugging), and Ha-Seong Kim (.310 expected wOBA).
In a matchup versus Kyle Freeland, MLB's ninth ranked team in hits against left-handed pitching contains Saturday's current top run total mark at a 5.3 mark.
To best combat's Freeland's profile (46.5% career ground-ball percentage on the road), Pete Alonso (45.9% fly-ball percentage, 12.5% barrel rate), Francisco Lindor (.427 expected slugging, 40.9% fly-ball rate), Darin Ruf (42.0% fly-ball rate, 9.3% barrel percentage), Mark Canha (35.2% fly-ball percentage, .317 expected wOBA), and Starling Marte (.425 expected slugging, .275 expected average) all present high upside options with historical success against lefties or tendencies to hit the ball in the air with power.
After a 16-run output in their first two games in Oakland, the Yankees' 5.0 run total appears undervalued against Adam Oller and his ugly 6.19 xFIP.
With an obvious inability to get outs versus right-handed bats and lack of command (1.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio), Oller's troubles play right into the strength of the Yankees' batting order including the current American League MVP favorite in Aaron Judge (25.7% barrel rate, .703 slugging), DJ LeMahieu (.357 expected wOBA, .425 expected slugging), Gleyber Torres (9.3% barrel rate, .420 expected slugging), and Josh Donaldson (10.4% barrel percentage) while Anthony Rizzo (11.2% barrel rate, .461 expected slugging) and Andrew Benintendi (.272 expected average, ..401 expected slugging) rate well enough as secondary options.
