MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/12/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Ryne Nelson | 9.0 | 5.31 | 43.8% | 28.4% | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| NYM | Javier Assad | 8.0 | 4.92 | 37.0% | 22.6% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| CIN | Bryse Wilson | 9.0 | 4.76 | 34.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| HOU | Eduardo Rodriguez | 7.5 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| PIT | Mike Minor | 9.0 | 4.24 | 25.3% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| CLE | Reid Detmers | 8.0 | 4.22 | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| ATL | Alex Cobb | 7.0 | 3.90 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| LAA | Konnor Pilkington | 8.0 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| ARI | Tyler Anderson | 9.0 | 3.69 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| MIA | Glenn Otto | 7.0 | 3.68 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| TEX | Trevor Rogers | 7.0 | 3.32 | 12.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| DET | Framber Valdez | 7.5 | 3.17 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| SF | Spencer Strider | 7.0 | 3.10 | 9.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| CHC | Chris Bassitt | 8.0 | 3.08 | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | CHC | 7.3 | 93.1% | 85.0% | 73.2% | 59.0% | 44.1% | 30.7% | 19.8% |
| Framber Valdez | DET | 6.3 | 87.6% | 75.7% | 60.6% | 44.7% | 30.3% | 18.9% | 10.9% |
| Jon Gray | MIA | 6.1 | 85.9% | 73.1% | 57.3% | 41.3% | 27.3% | 16.5% | 9.2% |
| Spencer Strider | SF | 5.9 | 84.2% | 70.5% | 54.3% | 38.2% | 24.6% | 14.6% | 7.9% |
| Alex Cobb | ATL | 5.7 | 82.0% | 67.3% | 50.5% | 34.6% | 21.6% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
| Jose Berrios | TB | 5.5 | 79.5% | 63.8% | 46.6% | 30.9% | 18.7% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Reid Detmers | CLE | 5.5 | 79.4% | 63.6% | 46.4% | 30.8% | 18.6% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| Braxton Garrett | TEX | 5.2 | 76.6% | 59.9% | 42.4% | 27.2% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | ARI | 5.2 | 75.5% | 58.5% | 41.0% | 26.0% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Trevor Rogers | TEX | 5.0 | 73.9% | 56.5% | 38.9% | 24.2% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| Ryne Nelson | LAD | 4.8 | 71.2% | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Mike Minor | PIT | 4.7 | 69.0% | 50.5% | 33.2% | 19.5% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Konnor Pilkington | LAA | 4.5 | 66.4% | 47.5% | 30.4% | 17.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Glenn Otto | MIA | 4.4 | 63.5% | 44.3% | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | HOU | 4.2 | 60.8% | 41.4% | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Jalen Beeks | TOR | 3.8 | 52.7% | 33.2% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Javier Assad | NYM | 3.7 | 50.8% | 31.5% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Bryse Wilson | CIN | 3.1 | 38.2% | 20.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Cooper Criswell | TOR | 1.8 | 11.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 111 | Mike Minor | 27.0% | +270 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | No | 98 | Javier Assad | 23.0% | +335 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 93 | Ryne Nelson | 22.2% | +350 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 93 | Ryne Nelson | 22.2% | +350 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | Yes | 111 | Mike Minor | 21.8% | +360 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | No | 92 | Trevor Rogers | 20.9% | +380 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | No | 94 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 20.8% | +380 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | Yes | 113 | Bryse Wilson | 20.2% | +395 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 19.8% | +405 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 87 | Alex Cobb | 19.6% | +410 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 19.5% | +415 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | Yes | 99 | Konnor Pilkington | 19.5% | +415 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 18.8% | +430 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 93 | Ryne Nelson | 18.7% | +435 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | No | 113 | Mike Minor | 18.7% | +435 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | Yes | 93 | Tyler Anderson | 18.6% | +440 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 18.3% | +445 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 17.9% | +455 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 17.9% | +455 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 95 | Javier Assad | 17.1% | +485 |
| Tyler Naquin | NYM | Yes | 95 | Javier Assad | 17.1% | +485 |
| Trayce Thompson | LAD | No | 93 | Ryne Nelson | 17.1% | +485 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 99 | Ryne Nelson | 17.1% | +485 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 99 | Ryne Nelson | 17.1% | +485 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 17.0% | +490 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | No | 92 | Braxton Garrett | 16.9% | +490 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 113 | Bryse Wilson | 16.9% | +490 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | No | 94 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 16.7% | +500 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | Yes | 95 | Javier Assad | 16.5% | +505 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | Yes | 95 | Javier Assad | 16.5% | +505 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 87 | Spencer Strider | 16.5% | +505 |
| Brandon Lowe | TB | Yes | 94 | Jose Berrios | 16.4% | +510 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | ARI | Yes | 93 | Tyler Anderson | 16.2% | +515 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 90 | Spencer Strider | 16.1% | +520 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Yes | 95 | Javier Assad | 15.9% | +530 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 99 | Ryne Nelson | 15.8% | +530 |
| Joey Gallo | LAD | Yes | 99 | Ryne Nelson | 15.8% | +530 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 99 | Reid Detmers | 15.7% | +535 |
| Nick Fortes | MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray | 15.5% | +545 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 15.2% | +560 |
| Christian Bethancourt | TB | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 15.1% | +560 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 15.0% | +565 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | No | 111 | Bryse Wilson | 14.9% | +570 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | No | 103 | Reid Detmers | 14.7% | +580 |
| Danny Jansen | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 14.6% | +585 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | Yes | 99 | Konnor Pilkington | 14.4% | +595 |
| Michael Chavis | PIT | Yes | 111 | Mike Minor | 14.2% | +605 |
| Aristides Aquino | CIN | No | 111 | Bryse Wilson | 14.2% | +605 |
| Sam Huff | TEX | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 13.9% | +620 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 13.8% | +625 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | Yes | 93 | Tyler Anderson | 13.6% | +635 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | No | 103 | Konnor Pilkington | 13.5% | +640 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 111 | Bryse Wilson | 13.5% | +645 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 13.3% | +655 |
| George Springer | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 13.1% | +660 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 87 | Spencer Strider | 13.0% | +665 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 87 | Alex Cobb | 13.0% | +665 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 12.9% | +675 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | Yes | 99 | Konnor Pilkington | 12.9% | +675 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | No | 92 | Braxton Garrett | 12.8% | +680 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt | 12.7% | +685 |
| Spencer Steer | CIN | No | 111 | Bryse Wilson | 12.7% | +690 |
| Ben Gamel | PIT | No | 113 | Mike Minor | 12.6% | +690 |
| Mark Mathias | TEX | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 12.6% | +695 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | No | 90 | Glenn Otto | 12.5% | +700 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 99 | Framber Valdez | 12.2% | +720 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 99 | Konnor Pilkington | 12.2% | +720 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | Yes | 99 | Reid Detmers | 12.2% | +720 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | No | 94 | Framber Valdez | 11.9% | +740 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 11.9% | +740 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | No | 103 | Reid Detmers | 11.7% | +760 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | Yes | 99 | Konnor Pilkington | 11.4% | +775 |
| Eric Haase | DET | Yes | 99 | Framber Valdez | 11.4% | +775 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray | 11.2% | +790 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray | 11.2% | +790 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 11.2% | +790 |
| David Peralta | TB | Yes | 94 | Jose Berrios | 11.2% | +790 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 92 | Glenn Otto | 11.0% | +810 |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 10.8% | +820 |
| Stone Garrett | ARI | Yes | 93 | Tyler Anderson | 10.8% | +825 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 10.7% | +835 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | No | 90 | Glenn Otto | 10.6% | +845 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 10.6% | +845 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | No | 99 | Tyler Anderson | 10.0% | +900 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | No | 98 | Javier Assad | 10.0% | +905 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 9.9% | +910 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 90 | Glenn Otto | 9.9% | +910 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray | 9.9% | +910 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 90 | Spencer Strider | 9.9% | +910 |
| Jeff McNeil | NYM | Yes | 95 | Javier Assad | 9.9% | +910 |
| Mauricio Dubon | HOU | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 9.9% | +915 |
| Owen Miller | CLE | Yes | 99 | Reid Detmers | 9.9% | +915 |
| Josh Jung | TEX | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 9.8% | +920 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 93 | Ryne Nelson | 9.5% | +955 |
| Harold Ramirez | TB | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 9.5% | +955 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Yes | 101 | Jalen Beeks | 9.2% | +985 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 9.2% | +985 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 9.2% | +985 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 87 | Spencer Strider | 9.1% | +995 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | Yes | 99 | Framber Valdez | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Javier Baez | DET | Yes | 99 | Framber Valdez | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Jose Siri | TB | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 8.7% | +1050 |
| David Villar | SF | No | 90 | Spencer Strider | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 8.5% | +1085 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 8.3% | +1105 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | 99 | Konnor Pilkington | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | No | 92 | Trevor Rogers | 8.2% | +1125 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 93 | Tyler Anderson | 7.8% | +1185 |
| Lewin Diaz | MIA | Yes | 92 | Glenn Otto | 7.4% | +1250 |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | Yes | 99 | Reid Detmers | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | Yes | 99 | Framber Valdez | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 90 | Alex Cobb | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | No | 90 | Glenn Otto | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Charles Leblanc | MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Manuel Margot | TB | No | 101 | Jose Berrios | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 87 | Spencer Strider | 7.0% | +1325 |
| Mike Ford | LAA | No | 103 | Konnor Pilkington | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | No | 103 | Reid Detmers | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | 90 | Trevor Rogers | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | MIA | No | 90 | Jon Gray | 6.4% | +1470 |
| Jason Delay | PIT | Yes | 111 | Mike Minor | 6.3% | +1490 |
