3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/14/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adolis Garcia To Record an RBI (+120)
The Texas Rangers have a strong 4.66 implied run total, which is the second-highest on the slate.
We're continuing to target teams with a high expectation for offense, and that leads us to the Rangers tonight. They are taking on JP Sears, a young pitcher who isn't too much of a threat on the mound.
Sears is allowing a .430 SLG, .319 wOBA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.24 HR/9, 15.2% strikeout rate, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. The southpaw on the mound is certainly getting hit hard, and that should lead us to several righties from the Rangers.
Adolis Garcia comes in with plenty of power in this split, rocking a 118 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .209 ISO, 36.3% fly-ball rate, and 42.2% hard-contact rate versus lefties. Garcia is locked in at the plate with a five-game hitting streak in the works, with three home runs in that time.
A small sprinkle could be fruitful on Garcia 2+ RBI (+440) since he is so hot right now.
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Fading an elite pitcher? It's not for everyone.
It can be a tough pill to swallow taking an under, especially for a great pitcher, but that's where I'm at tonight -- under 6.5 strikeouts for Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers.
On the season, Burnes has a 31.3% strikeout rate, which is absolutely awesome. However, it hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows as of late.
Over the last month, Burnes has six starts under his belt, and they haven't been great. He's posted a 25.0% strikeout rate or lower in five of the six starts. Three of the starts were below a 20.0% strikeout rate. That led to him hitting the under on 6.5 strikeouts in five of these last six starts.
Tonight, he is taking on the St. Louis Cardinals, who come in with a 20.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-lowest in the league.
Burnes hasn't been amazing in recent starts and now takes on an offense that doesn't waste chances at the plate.
Francisco Lindor 2+ Total Bases (+110)
The New York Mets need to pick up a win.
The last few weeks have been rough for the Mets with their lead slipping in the NL East, and the Atlanta Braves are hot on their heels. A two-game losing streak is what the Mets bring into a clear bounce-back game tonight versus Drew Smyly.
This season, Smyly is allowing a .446 SLG, .324 wOBA, 1.58 HR/9, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 4.03 xFIP versus right-handed hitters. The Mets have a 4.31 implied run total, so they are expected to put up a few runs tonight, and that means we want some player props.
We turn to Francisco Lindor, who comes in with a 118 wRC+, .331 wOBA, 17.1% strikeout rate, .184 ISO, and 41.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers.
He doesn't strike out a ton, putting him in a spot to have plenty of chances to get on base.
