MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 9/16/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSJon
Heasley
9.55.4646.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
HOUAdrian
Martinez
7.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
SDMadison
Bumgarner
8.54.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
NYMMitch
Keller
7.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
CHCGerman
Marquez
8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
SEAMichael
Lorenzen
8.04.3827.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
ATLRanger
Suarez
7.54.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
NYYAdrian
Houser
8.04.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
MIAJosiah
Gray
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
LADLogan
Webb
7.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
CHWMatt
Manning
7.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
TBMartin
Perez
7.54.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
KCMichael
Wacha
9.54.0422.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
CLEBailey
Ober
7.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
COLMarcus
Stroman
8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
WSHJesus
Luzardo
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
MILFrankie
Montas
8.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
ARIBlake
Snell
8.53.7117.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%0.5%
LAARobbie
Ray
8.03.6215.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
MINTriston
McKenzie
7.53.5014.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
TEXCorey
Kluber
7.53.4513.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
DETLucas
Giolito
7.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
SFDustin
May
7.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
PHIMax
Fried
7.53.2511.1%4.8%1.8%0.6%0.2%
PITTaijuan
Walker
7.52.978.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
OAKJustin
Verlander
7.52.705.7%2.1%0.7%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Blake
Snell
ARI6.789.8%79.3%65.2%49.7%34.9%22.7%13.6%
Robbie
Ray
LAA6.488.0%76.3%61.3%45.4%31.0%19.4%11.3%
Max
Fried
PHI6.387.7%75.8%60.7%44.8%30.4%19.0%10.9%
Lucas
Giolito
DET5.882.9%68.6%52.0%36.0%22.8%13.2%7.0%
Triston
McKenzie
MIN5.882.7%68.3%51.7%35.7%22.5%13.0%6.9%
Frankie
Montas
MIL5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Jesus
Luzardo
WSH5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Taijuan
Walker
PIT5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Logan
Webb
LAD5.479.0%63.1%45.9%30.3%18.2%10.0%5.0%
Michael
Wacha
KC5.478.8%62.8%45.6%30.0%18.0%9.8%4.9%
Martin
Perez
TB5.377.8%61.5%44.2%28.7%17.0%9.2%4.5%
Trevor
Richards
BAL5.174.5%57.2%39.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
Corey
Kluber
TEX5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
Josiah
Gray
MIA4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
Ranger
Suarez
ATL4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Madison
Bumgarner
SD4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Marcus
Stroman
COL4.667.9%49.2%31.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
Dustin
May
SF4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
German
Marquez
CHC4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Bailey
Ober
CLE4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Adrian
Houser
NYY4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Michael
Lorenzen
SEA4.361.6%42.2%25.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
Jordan
Lyles
TOR4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Matt
Manning
CHW4.056.1%36.5%21.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Jack
Flaherty
CIN3.751.0%31.7%17.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Jon
Heasley
BOS3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Mitch
Keller
NYM3.648.5%29.4%15.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Adrian
Martinez
HOU3.648.3%29.2%15.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Justin
Verlander
OAK3.546.3%27.5%14.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Justin
Dunn
STL3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Adrian
Martinez
24.5%+310
Mike
Trout
LAAYes103Robbie
Ray
23.9%+320
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo108Robbie
Ray
23.0%+335
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Adrian
Houser
22.8%+340
C.J.
Cron
COLNo103Marcus
Stroman
22.3%+350
Anthony
Santander
BALYes94Trevor
Richards
22.2%+350
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Jon
Heasley
21.1%+375
MJ
Melendez
KCYes93Michael
Wacha
21.1%+375
George
Springer
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
21.0%+375
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
20.9%+375
Manny
Machado
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
20.8%+380
Evan
Longoria
SFNo90Dustin
May
20.7%+380
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
20.5%+390
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo101Trevor
Richards
20.5%+390
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes97Max
Fried
20.3%+390
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
19.9%+400
Seth
Brown
OAKYes102Justin
Verlander
19.9%+405
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Adrian
Houser
19.7%+410
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
19.7%+410
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Matt
Manning
19.6%+410
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
19.1%+425
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Jon
Heasley
19.1%+425
Josh
Jung
TEXNo94Corey
Kluber
18.9%+430
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
18.8%+430
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
18.8%+430
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
18.6%+435
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Blake
Snell
18.6%+440
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Frankie
Montas
18.5%+440
Albert
Pujols
STLNo91Justin
Dunn
18.4%+445
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Mitch
Keller
18.4%+445
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes103Robbie
Ray
18.2%+450
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes94Matt
Manning
18.1%+450
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes94Lucas
Giolito
18.1%+450
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Justin
Dunn
18.0%+455
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Frankie
Montas
18.0%+455
Kyle
Garlick
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
18.0%+455
Ty
France
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
17.9%+460
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo91Justin
Dunn
17.9%+460
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Dustin
May
17.7%+465
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
17.7%+465
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
17.6%+465
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
17.6%+465
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
17.6%+465
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Bailey
Ober
17.6%+470
Max
Stassi
LAAYes103Robbie
Ray
17.6%+470
Matt
Olson
ATLNo100Ranger
Suarez
17.5%+470
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Adrian
Martinez
17.5%+470
William
Contreras
ATLYes97Ranger
Suarez
17.4%+475
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Matt
Manning
17.4%+475
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
17.1%+485
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
17.1%+485
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
17.0%+490
Josh
Bell
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
16.8%+495
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes93Blake
Snell
16.8%+495
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
16.4%+510
Jake
Fraley
CINYes97Jack
Flaherty
16.2%+515
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo99Michael
Wacha
16.2%+520
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes97Ranger
Suarez
16.1%+520
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
15.9%+530
Juan
Soto
SDNo99Madison
Bumgarner
15.9%+530
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes94Jordan
Lyles
15.8%+535
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
15.8%+535
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes103Robbie
Ray
15.5%+545
Gio
Urshela
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
15.5%+545
Trevor
Story
BOSNo99Jon
Heasley
15.5%+545
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes92Corey
Kluber
15.5%+545
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes92Corey
Kluber
15.5%+545
Austin
Riley
ATLYes97Ranger
Suarez
15.5%+545
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Frankie
Montas
15.4%+550
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
15.4%+550
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo103Marcus
Stroman
15.4%+550
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Adrian
Houser
15.4%+550
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
15.1%+560
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo91Jack
Flaherty
15.1%+565
Mookie
Betts
LADNo90Logan
Webb
15.0%+570
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes93Blake
Snell
14.9%+570
Corey
Seager
TEXYes92Corey
Kluber
14.9%+570
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
14.9%+570
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo94Corey
Kluber
14.9%+570
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes97Max
Fried
14.8%+575
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Frankie
Montas
14.7%+580
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103German
Marquez
14.7%+580
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo101Trevor
Richards
14.5%+590
Luke
Voit
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
14.4%+590
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
14.4%+595
Will
Smith
LADNo90Logan
Webb
14.4%+595
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Justin
Dunn
14.3%+600
TJ
Friedl
CINYes97Jack
Flaherty
14.3%+600
Salvador
Perez
KCNo99Michael
Wacha
14.2%+600
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Bailey
Ober
14.2%+600
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
14.2%+605
Jo
Adell
LAAYes103Robbie
Ray
14.1%+610
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103German
Marquez
14.0%+610
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes94Trevor
Richards
13.9%+620
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
13.7%+630
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo94Corey
Kluber
13.6%+635
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes87Logan
Webb
13.6%+635
Joey
Gallo
LADYes87Logan
Webb
13.6%+635
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
13.6%+635
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Justin
Dunn
13.6%+635
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Jon
Heasley
13.6%+635
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes96Marcus
Stroman
13.5%+640
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
13.4%+650
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
13.4%+650
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103German
Marquez
13.3%+650
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo100Max
Fried
13.2%+660
Trea
Turner
LADNo90Logan
Webb
13.1%+660
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Dustin
May
13.1%+660
Austin
Hays
BALNo101Trevor
Richards
13.1%+660
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo101Justin
Verlander
13.1%+660
Riley
Adams
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
12.9%+675
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes97Ranger
Suarez
12.7%+685
Elias
Diaz
COLNo103Marcus
Stroman
12.6%+690
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes94Matt
Manning
12.6%+695
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes94Trevor
Richards
12.6%+695
Lewis
Brinson
SFNo90Dustin
May
12.5%+700
Nick
Pratto
KCYes93Michael
Wacha
12.5%+700
Mike
Toglia
COLYes96Marcus
Stroman
12.1%+725
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Adrian
Houser
11.9%+740
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103German
Marquez
11.9%+740
David
Villar
SFNo90Dustin
May
11.9%+740
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
11.9%+745
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes93Michael
Wacha
11.8%+745
Max
Muncy
LADYes87Logan
Webb
11.8%+750
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
11.7%+755
Ramon
Urias
BALNo101Trevor
Richards
11.7%+755
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes97Justin
Dunn
11.5%+765
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Jon
Heasley
11.5%+770
Romy
Gonzalez
CHWNo99Matt
Manning
11.5%+770
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96German
Marquez
11.4%+775
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes96German
Marquez
11.4%+775
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo100Ranger
Suarez
11.4%+780
Corbin
Carroll
ARINo99Blake
Snell
11.3%+790
Justin
Turner
LADNo90Logan
Webb
11.2%+790
Ozzie
Albies
ATLYes97Ranger
Suarez
11.2%+790
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo103Marcus
Stroman
11.2%+795
Alan
Trejo
COLNo103Marcus
Stroman
11.2%+795
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
11.0%+810
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo101Justin
Verlander
11.0%+810
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
11.0%+810
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Martin
Perez
10.9%+815
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
10.8%+825
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Lucas
Giolito
10.8%+830
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Jon
Heasley
10.8%+830
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Lucas
Giolito
10.8%+830
Luis
Robert
CHWNo99Matt
Manning
10.8%+830
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo99Matt
Manning
10.8%+830
Connor
Wong
BOSNo99Jon
Heasley
10.8%+830
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Lucas
Giolito
10.8%+830
Jose
Miranda
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
10.8%+830
Jonathan
India
CINNo91Jack
Flaherty
10.7%+835
Nick
Fortes
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
10.7%+835
Charles
Leblanc
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
10.7%+835
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Bailey
Ober
10.6%+840
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
10.6%+840
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
10.6%+840
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes102Justin
Verlander
10.5%+850
Drew
Waters
KCYes93Michael
Wacha
10.4%+860
Mike
Ford
LAANo108Robbie
Ray
10.1%+885
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo99Matt
Manning
10.0%+895
Michael
Chavis
PITNo98Taijuan
Walker
10.0%+905
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Taijuan
Walker
9.9%+910
Brian
Anderson
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
9.9%+910
Sandy
Leon
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
9.8%+915
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Jon
Heasley
9.7%+930
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes97Ranger
Suarez
9.7%+935
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Adrian
Houser
9.6%+940
Alex
Call
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
9.6%+940
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Jordan
Lyles
9.5%+955
Wil
Myers
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
9.3%+970
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Dustin
May
9.2%+985
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes87Logan
Webb
9.1%+995
Jon
Berti
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
9.1%+1000
Jerar
Encarnacion
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
9.1%+1000
Cody
Thomas
OAKYes102Justin
Verlander
8.9%+1020
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Frankie
Montas
8.9%+1025
Christian
Bethancourt
TBYes94Martin
Perez
8.6%+1055
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Blake
Snell
8.6%+1070
J.D.
Davis
SFNo90Dustin
May
8.5%+1070
Owen
Miller
CLENo99Bailey
Ober
8.5%+1070
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Lucas
Giolito
8.3%+1105
David
Peralta
TBNo92Martin
Perez
8.2%+1125
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo99Madison
Bumgarner
8.1%+1140
Yan
Gomes
CHCNo103German
Marquez
8.0%+1145
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Adrian
Martinez
7.9%+1165
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
7.9%+1170
Wander
Franco
TBYes94Martin
Perez
7.9%+1175
Jose
Siri
TBYes94Martin
Perez
7.9%+1175
Luis
Gonzalez
SFNo90Dustin
May
7.8%+1180
Stone
Garrett
ARIYes93Blake
Snell
7.8%+1185
Rougned
Odor
BALYes94Trevor
Richards
7.5%+1225
Jonathan
Aranda
TBNo92Martin
Perez
7.5%+1225
Max
Kepler
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
7.4%+1255
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Bailey
Ober
7.4%+1255
Matt
Vierling
PHIYes97Max
Fried
7.3%+1280
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Frankie
Montas
7.2%+1280
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Justin
Dunn
7.0%+1335
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Jesus
Luzardo
7.0%+1335
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes96Marcus
Stroman
6.9%+1350
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95Mitch
Keller
6.8%+1365
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
6.8%+1370