FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 10/4/22
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate where they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play #1
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
vs. Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $10,400
While I really like Julio Urias, I am also very scared of some top-flight options, leading me to roster the southpaw for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Let's dissect some of the other expensive hurlers we should shy away from. Justin Verlander ($11,200) has enjoyed a wonderful return from Tommy John surgery, but he faces a desperate Philadelphia Phillies squad that ranks sixth-in team wOBA in the last two weeks (.330) with only a 21.3% strikeout rate.
Similarly, Carlos Rodon ($10,800) faces a similarly hungry San Diego Padres team that needs to clinch playoff seeding, and they rank inside the top-10 in team wOBA (.311), too, over the same time frame. Lucas Giolito just doesn't have that dawg in him in 2022 (5.00, 1.47 WHIP), and Zac Gallen faces a hot Milwaukee Brewers (.306 wOBA) team.
Let's pivot to Urias, who faces a Colorado Rockies team missing Charlie Blackmon and has been stinkier at the dish than limburger cheese. Using our same last 14-day time frame, they rank 10th-worst in team wOBA (.291), but pair that with an elevated 25.5% whiff rate.
According to numberFire's projections, Urias is the top dog tonight.
High-Salaried Play #2
Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers
vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary: $9,900
The Brew Crew will turn the ball to Eric Lauer with a favorable matchup on tap.
Lauer's opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have been bad at the plate recently. Over the last two weeks, they clock in the bottom third of the league in terms of team wOBA, strikeout rate and ISO. But, it runs a bit deeper here with the Lauer recommendation.
The Snakes haven't hit southpaws at all this year. As we peek at their season-long marks, they own a dreadful .290 wOBA (fifth-worst), .137 ISO (sixth-worst), and couple that with a 23.5% strikeout rate, Lauer makes a lot of sense.
In his own right, Lauer has enjoyed a breakout season in 2022. Over 152 2/3 innings pitched, the lefty has recorded a 3.83 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate, including a solid 27.1% CSW rate.
Our seventh-best hurler tonight, there's a lot to like about him.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
