MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/12/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Over 7.0 (-128): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Zack Wheeler and Kyle Wright are the expected starters for Game 2, and while both are quality hurlers, our model is backing the offenses.
Wright won 21 games and posted a 3.19 ERA. He wasn't overpowering, though, recording a meh 23.6% strikeout rate. He also slipped in the second half after a red-hot start, giving up 1.28 homers per nine and a 35.6% hard-hit rate after the break, compared to a 26.8% hard-hit rate and 0.74 dingers per nine in the first half.
Wheeler was very good in 2022, finishing with a 3.19 SIERA. But, he was a worse pitcher away from home. On the road, he permitted a .307 wOBA with a 25.6% strikeout rate. At home, those numbers were .242 and 28.2%, respectively.
Both of these offenses ended the year in good form. Over the last 30 days of the regular season, the Atlanta Braves ranked fifth in wOBA (.325) while the Philadelphia Phillies sat eighth (.322). They combined for 13 runs in Game 1.
We're also getting two tired bullpens as yesterday's starters each went exactly 3 1/3 frames each.
We project the final score to be 4.36-3.97 in favor of Atlanta. That's 8.33 total runs. We think the over wins out 56.4% of the time and mark it as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 7.0 (-102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish get the ball today in a headline-grabbing pitching matchup. Both have the tools to succeed despite facing stout lineups.
Darvish had one of the best seasons of his excellent career in 2022, pitching to a 3.39 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate. He was at his best down the stretch, registering a 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.19 xFIP in the second half. He's faced the Los Angeles Dodgers four times this season and kept them to two runs or fewer in three of the outings, including scoreless starts of seven and six innings.
Kershaw's 2.98 SIERA for this year was his best clip since 2016. He had a 27.8% strikeout rate, and 13.9% swinging-strike rate. Over September and October, he posted a 31.2% strikeout rate and 2.46 xFIP. He's still one of the game's best pitchers, and he limited the San Diego Padres to one earned run over two outings against them (12 innings).
We have the Dodgers winning by a score of 3.65-3.19 -- a total of 6.84 runs. With the line at an even 7.0 runs, we think the under is the side to be on, and we give it a one-star rating.
