MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 10/13/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Over 6.5 (-128)
Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Eugenio Suarez 2+ Bases (+185)
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+560)
These two played a wild Game 1, and we should be in for another doozie this afternoon (3:37 p.m. EST).
The starting pitching matchup pits Luis Castillo against Framber Valdez.
Castillo dealt against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round. But as great as he's been for the Seattle Mariners -- and he's been awesome, posting a 3.08 SIERA and 28.9% strikeout rate since arriving -- Castillo has a brutally tough matchup today against the Houston Astros' offense.
Houston finished the year with a lowly 19.5% strikeout rate, the second-lowest clip, and they were also seventh in wOBA (.324). That puts me on the under on Castillo's strikeouts.
Valdez, a southpaw, had an excellent season, pitching to a 3.14 SIERA. But he's not a high-strikeout guy, registering a 23.1% strikeout rate. He thrives by inducing a stellar 66.2% ground-ball rate. Seattle's offense isn't as potent as Houston's, but the M's are swinging it well right now, scoring 42 runs over their previous six games, including 17 over the last two. And Seattle has some quality righties in their lineup -- namely Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, Ty France, and Eugenio Suarez.
I want to hone in on Suarez. While Valdez's ground-ball ways help him limit extra-base hits, I think Suarez can do some damage.
The Seattle third baseman has really good numbers against lefties, putting up a .390 wOBA, 40.4% hard-hit rate, and 42.7% fly-ball rate in the split. I'm on him to get 2+ total bases (+185), and even though Valdez kept righties to just 0.55 homers per nine, I don't mind taking Suarez to go deep at +560. That's a big number for a guy who makes a lot of loud contact, and the short porch in left could give us a hand.
Overall, our model projects this to be a 4.14-3.41 win for Houston. That's 7.55 total runs, and we think the over wins out 61.3% of the time. It's a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), per our numbers.
