FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 4/5/23
Today's afternoon-heavy schedule means we're getting an early main slate at 1:05 pm ET. A few games have some rain in the forecast, but it doesn't look like anything we should be overly concerned about.
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Jacob deGrom ($9,900) is arguably the most intriguing case today. He was lit up by the Phillies on Opening Day, yet his peripheral numbers were fantastic between a 1.74 SIERA, 41.2% strikeout rate, and 0.0% walk rate. A .556 BABIP also screams bad luck considering he allowed a mere 20.0% hard-hit rate. His 13.9% swinging-strike rate was far lower than the ridiculous marks we've seen in recent seasons, but it's hardly a bad one, either.
And then there's the salary. Getting deGrom at under $10,000 is unheard of, so if the deGrom we're used to shows up, he'll absolutely crush the slate. Baltimore isn't the easiest opponent, but we generally aren't super concerned about matchups when it comes to deGrom.
Meanwhile, we also have Cristian Javier ($10,000), another pitcher who didn't quite live up to expectations in his opening start but also suffered from a high BABIP (.500). Javier posted a ridiculous 23.2% swinging-strike rate and only issued one walk in five innings, so he should be fine moving forward. As a refresher, the right-hander produced a 3.14 SIERA and 33.2% strikeout rate in 2022.
This is the right matchup for him to get on track against the Tigers. Detroit's active roster ranks last in wRC+ (80) and second-to-last in strikeout rate (24.9%) versus righties going back to last season.
Gerrit Cole ($11,100) dominated on Opening Day (61 FanDuel points), so he comes in with the slate's highest salary. That lowers his appeal somewhat when you can get the previous two guys for roughly $1,000 less, but he's a clear top play if you can fit him in. Philadelphia has a slate-worst 2.99 implied team total, and Cole is one of the few pitchers we can confidently expect to crack 100 pitches today.
Shane McClanahan ($10,600) took care of business against the Tigers in his first start, blanking them across six scoreless innings with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 60.0% ground-ball rate. The lefty was one of the best pitchers in baseball before fading in 2022, and it looks like another strong season is upcoming. I have an easier time seeing one of the previous three leading the slate in scoring, but he shouldn't have any trouble dispatching a weak Nationals team (3.16 implied team total).
It's actually a fairly loaded pitching slate, but we have to stop somewhere, so I'll give final shoutouts to Dylan Cease ($10,800) and Jesus Luzardo ($9,000).
Cease racked up 10 strikeouts on Opening Day for 50 FanDuel points, and it came against Houston of all teams. Cease has exceeded a 30% strikeout rate in each of the past two seasons, and it's only a matter of whether he can dial in a double-digit walk rate. He didn't issue any free passes last week, and he might see a lower roster percentage versus San Francisco compared to deGrom, Javier, and Cole.
I'm not sure this is the slate to skimp at pitcher, so Luzardo is about as low as I'd feel comfortable going. He was wild in his first 2023 start but produced a 3.28 SIERA and 30.0% strikeout rate last year, so the potential is there to hang with the big dogs. This isn't an easy spot versus Minnesota, but the low implied team total (3.55) is promising.
Hitting Breakdown
For some of the top stacks of the afternoon, check out today's stacks piece, which features the Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, and Boston Red Sox.
Outside of those trio of teams, the St. Louis Cardinals are another team to consider.
We're looking at 16 mph winds blowing out at Busch Stadium, and the Cardinals are facing what could be an average pitcher in Bryce Elder.
Elder logged 54 innings in his first MLB campaign last year, and while the results were generally pretty good, he was less effective versus left-handed batters, recording a 4.82 xIP, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate. He also allowed more fly balls in the split (36.8%), making him more susceptible to home runs.
That bumps up lefties nicely, but St. Louis' top bats are right-handed. The good news is that while Elder did post a 25.8% strikeout rate and 27.6% fly-ball rate in same-sided matchups, he also exhibited poor control with an 11.3% walk rate.
In all, it's not quite the perfect setup for the Cardinals, but Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) and Nolan Arenado ($3,800) should be able to take advantage as fly-ball hitters, and Arenado rarely strikes out. St. Louis has also loaded up on lefty sticks, surrounding the stud righties with Brendan Donovan ($3,300), Alec Burleson ($2,700), Nolan Gorman ($3,100), and Dylan Carlson ($2,400).
You can also consider the Atlanta Braves on the other side. Their matchup isn't anything special against Miles Mikolas, but he's typically a low-strikeout pitcher, so he might allow a lot of contact in these hitter-friendly weather conditions, which could bode well for one of the best offenses in the league.
