3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/10/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+280)
The Seattle Mariners have a 4.60 implied run total tonight and have a favorable matchup to exceed that mark.
With decent hitting weather on tap for Wrigley Field tonight, the Mariners are in a spot to flex their offensive upside against Drew Smyly. If we look back to last season, Smyly allowed a .448 SLG, .324 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9, and 43.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. That fly-ball rate is immense and a slight bit of wind blowing out tonight could spell trouble for Smyly.
When it comes to Teoscar Hernandez, he crushed the ball last season versus left-handed pitchers to the tune of a 175 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .363 ISO, 45.3% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate. He's essentially checking off every box we could possibly want when it comes to identifying hitters who have good power upside in their matchup.
As always, I'm adding on Hernandez To Record an RBI (+105).
Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
The San Diego Padres are on the road to take on the New York Mets with two big-name pitchers on the mound.
Yu Darvish versus Max Scherzer is one of the best matchups of the night, but despite the star power, I'm going with Darvish under 5.5 strikeouts. Last season, Darvish was solid with a 25.6% strikeout rate, but it's not jumping off the page at you. He's a good strikeout pitcher, but not a great one.
When it comes to the Mets' lineup, they aren't giving away chances at the plate this season and are only striking out 18.1% of the time versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-lowest in the league. Darvish didn't look spectacular in his first start this season with just three strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks in five innings of work.
There's not much here that inspires a ton of confidence, and that has me going to the under tonight.
Kris Bryant To Record an RBI (+105)
Finally, an RBI prop from Kris Bryant of the Colorado Rockies.
A game at Coors Field is always a great spot to look for some props because it's the league's best hitter's park, and the offensive expectation is always high. That is shown by the 11.5 over/under tonight, a mark that can be reached quickly with very favorable hitting conditions tonight.
Steven Matz will be on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he's not a pitcher we need to fear. Last season, Matz allowed a .434 SLG, 1.66 HR/9, 40.2% fly-ball rate, and .313 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Rockies have a 5.34 implied run total and are expected to put up some runs against Matz.
For Bryant, he only played 42 games last season due to injuries, which means should look back to 2021 for a better sample size. In 2021, he posted a 138 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .254 ISO, 45.8% fly-ball rate, and 40.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's hitting near the top of the lineup for a team at Coors Field, and we're getting a plus-money prop.
