3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/18/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Ryan Mountcastle To Hit a Home Run (+330)
The Baltimore Orioles are rocking a 4.82 implied run total and have a great matchup for some offense tonight.
That implied run total is the highest of any team outside of Coors Field tonight, a good indication that we will see their offense on full display. They are going up against the Washington Nationals, who will have Josiah Gray on the mound, a pitcher we should be actively attacking when he is on the slate.
Last season, Gray allowed a .412 SLG, .300 wOBA, 1.60 HR/9, and 40.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. His numbers this season are in line with those, a good indication he will still struggle with power-hitting righties this year.
We turn to Ryan Mountcastle, who ended last season with a 109 wRC+, .321 wOBA, .179 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 34.5% hard-contact rate versus righties. Mountcastle hits in the heart of the lineup for the Orioles and should be in a spot where the Nats can't pitch around him, giving him good pitches to see.
As usual, I'm also adding Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+110).
Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Jose Urquidy is a fine pitcher, and that's the best way to describe him.
There's really no other way to put things when it comes to Urquidy's game on the mound. He's an okay pitcher who doesn't do any one thing particularly well and isn't a pitcher we need to fear. A 20.0% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rake, and 46,8% medium-contact rate are about as average to below-average as you can possibly find. His 44.7% fly-ball rate is always a bit dangerous for him, but that just means a plus for opposing hitters.
Nothing about his pitching profile suggests that he is a big strikeout pitcher who can go out there and totally shut down a lineup. I'm simply not afraid of Urquidy on the mound, and neither should the Toronto Blue Jays.
They come in with a 21.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is 21st in the league. They are very disciplined at the plate, not to mention their 119 wRC+ (4th) and .160 ISO (13th) are both in the top half of the league versus righties.
The Blue Jays have plenty of power and can knock a pitcher out of the game quickly, leading to the under on his strikeout prop.
Aaron Judge To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
In what could be my favorite prop of the day: Aaron Judge to record 2+ total bases for the New York Yankees.
The Yankees have a solid 4.82 run total against the Los Angeles Angels, who will have Jose Suarez on the mound. Suarez is a southpaw who struggled versus righties last season by allowing a .420 SLG, .321 wOBA, 1.21 HR/9, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 30.7% hard-contact rate.
With Yankee Stadium already being a solid hitter's park and 10-15 mph winds blowing out tonight, the hitting environment is awesome to see runs pile up quickly.
If we look back to last season, Judge's MVP year was elite across the board with a 174 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .348 ISO, 39.8% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is an elite matchup, and Judge should be reaching base multiple times tonight.
