3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/24/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Hunter Renfroe To Hit a Home Run (+285)
The Los Angeles Angels have one of the best matchups on the slate, and we should see them flex their offense tonight.
With a 5.75 implied run total, the Angels top the slate against the Oakland Athletics, who will have Ken Waldichuk on the mound. To put things plainly, Waldichuk is not a good pitcher, and the righties from the Angels should have a field day today.
This season, Waldichuk is allowing a .454 wOBA, .653 SLG, 5.73 xFIP, 3.24 HR/9, 10.8% walk rate, and 40.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. These are arguably the worst numbers on the slate, and the Angels cruising past their implied run total wouldn't be a surprise.
On the squad, we can turn to Hunter Renfroe, who comes in with a big 289 wRC+, .587 wOBA, .333 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. The power is front and center with Renfroe, and hitting in the middle of the Angels' lineup will put him in a spot to succeed.
As always, I'm adding Renfroe To Record an RBI (-115).
Austin Riley To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
The Atlanta Braves are struggling right now but have a good matchup to get back on track.
A four-game losing streak is not something we often see from the Brave, but their offense has plenty of potential against Edward Cabrera tonight.
Cabrera has been up and down from the minor leagues to the MLB since 2021 for the Miami Marlins, so let's look at his career numbers. Over that time, Cabrera has allowed a .355 wOBA, .433 SLG, 4.64 xFIP, 15.1% walk rate, 1.71 HR/9, 36.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
With numbers like those, we should see a decent output from the Braves, and that starts with Austin Riley. If we look back to last season, Riley was elite across the board with a 125 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .227 ISO, 37.6% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Riley is hitless over his last two games, and with this type of matchup, I'm expecting him to bounce back and find his way on base.
Jhony Brito Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)
Finally, I'm going with under 4.5 strikeouts for New York Yankees pitcher Jhony Brito.
This prop has a bit of juice, but there's nothing that indicates Brito will be flying past this total. This is Brito's first season in the MLB, and we only have a 15.0-inning sample size to work with. It's very small but in that time, he has posted a 17.2% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, 5.16 xFIP, and 10.1% swinging-strike rate.
It hasn't been the easiest start to an MLB career, and his numbers don't inspire a ton of confidence that put him in a spot to hit over 4.5 strikeouts. We also have to note his pitch count, which has been all over the place in his four starts. A total of 76, 92, 34, and 84 pitches in his four outings is concerning to bet the over.
The Yankees don't appear ready to let him go deep into games and at signs of trouble -- due to a high walk rate -- they pull him out early. This should lead to a short leash on Brito, limiting his chances to rack up enough strikeouts tonight.
